Peter Arcidiacono

Professor of Economics
Duke University
E-Mail: psarcidi at
Telephone: (919) 660-1816
Fax: (919) 684-8974
Office: 201A Social Sciences Building
Office Hours: By appointment 


Catholic Links

Duke University Website

Duke University Economics Website 

Working Papers

·       "College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation" with Esteban Aucejo, Arnaud Maurel, and Tyler Ransom (updated May 31, 2016) revise and resubmit Journal of Political Economy 

·       "Divergent: The Time Path of Legacy and Athlete Admissions at Harvard" with Josh Kinsler and Tyler Ransom (updated June 29, 2020)  longer version here

·       "Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard" with Josh Kinsler and Tyler Ransom (updated June 3, 2020) 

·        "Recruit to Reject? Harvard and African American Applicants" with Josh Kinsler and Tyler Ransom (updated February 19, 2020)

·        ''Equilibrium Grade Inflation with Implications for Female Interest in STEM Majors'' with Tom Ahn, Amy Hopson, and James Thomas (updated November 23, 2019) revise and resubmit Econometrica

·        "Asian American Discrimination in Harvard Admissions" with Josh Kinsler and Tyler Ransom (updated June 10, 2020) 


Published and Forthcoming Papers

·       "Ex Ante Returns and Occupational Choice" with V. Joseph Hotz, Arnaud Maurel, and Teresa Romano, forthcoming Journal of Political Economy 

·      "The Competitive Effects of Entry: Evidence from Supercenter Expansion" with Paul Ellickson, Carl Mela, and John Singleton, AEJ: Applied Economics, 12(3) (July 2020), 175-206

·       "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Choice Models off Short Panels" with Robert Miller, Journal of Econometrics, 215(2) (March 2020), 473-485

·       "Nonstationary Dynamic Models with Finite Dependence" with Robert Miller (originally part of Identifying Dynamic Discrete Choice Models off Short Panels), Quantitative Economics, 10(3) (July 2019), 853-890

·       "Productivity Spillovers in Team Production: Evidence from Professional Basketball" with Josh Kinsler and Joseph Price, Journal of Labor Economics, 35(1) (January 2017), 191-225 

·       "Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition" with Pat Bayer, Jason Blevins, and Paul Ellickson, Review of Economic Studies, 83(3) (July 2016), 889-931 

·       "The Analysis of Field Choice in College and Graduate School: Determinants and Wage Effects" with Joe Altonji and Arnaud Maurel, Handbook of the Economics of Education Volume 5, Chapter 7 (May 2016) 

·       "Terms of Endearment: An Equilibrium Model of Sex and Matching" with Andrew Beauchamp and Marjorie McElroy, Quantitative Economics, 7(1) (March 2016), 117-156 

·       "Affirmative Action and the Quality-Fit Tradeoff" with Mike Lovenheim, Journal of Economic Literature, 54(1) (March 2016), 3-51 

·       "University Differences in the Graduation of Minorities in STEM Fields: Evidence from California" with Esteban Aucejo, and V. Joseph Hotz, American Economic Review, Vol. 106, No. 3 (March 2016), 525-562 

·       "Affirmative Action in Undergraduate Education" with Mike Lovenheim and Maria Zhu, Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 7 (August 2015), 487-518 

·       "Exploring the Racial Divide in Education and the Labor Market through Evidence from Interracial Families" with Andrew Beauchamp, Marie Hull, and Seth Sanders, Journal of Human Capital, 9:2 (Summer 2015), 198-238. 

·       ''A Conversation of the Nature, Effects, and Future of Affirmative Action in Higher Education Admissions'' with Thomas Espenshade, Stacy Hawkins, and Richard Sander, University of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law, 17:3 (February 2015), 683-728. 

·       "Affirmative Action and University Fit: Evidence from Proposition 209" with Esteban Aucejo, Patrick Coate, and V. Joseph Hotz, IZA Journal of Labor Economics, 3:7 (September 2014) 

·       "Race and College Success: Evidence from Missouri" with Cory Koedel, AEJ: Applied Economics, Vol. 6, No. 3 (July 2014), 20-57. 

·       "Approximating High Dimensional Dynamic Models: Sieve Value Function Iteration" with Pat Bayer, Federico Bugni, and Jon James, Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 31 (December 2013), 45-96. 

·       "Racial Segregation Patterns in Selective Universities" with Esteban Aucejo, Andrew Hussey, and Ken Spenner, Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 56 (November 2013), 1039-1060. 

·       ''Pharmaceutical Followers"with Paul Ellickson, Peter Landry, and David Ridley, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol 31, No. 5 (September 2013), 538-553 

·       "Estimating Spillovers using Panel Data, with an Application to the Classroom" with Gigi Foster, Natalie Goodpaster, and Josh Kinsler Proofs for general class size and accumulation, Quantitative Economics, Vol. 3, No. 3 (November 2012), 421-470. 

·       "What Happens After Enrollment? An Analysis of the Time Path of Racial Differences in GPA and Major Choice" with Esteban Aucejo and Ken Spenner, IZA Journal of Labor Economics,1:5 (October, 2012) 

·       "Habit Persistence and Teen Sex: Could Increased Access to Contraception have Unintended Consequences for Teen Pregnancies?" with Ahmed Khwaja and Lijing Ouyang, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 30, No. 2 (April 2012), 312-325 

·       "Modeling College Major Choice using Elicited Measures of Expectations and Counterfactuals" with V. Joseph Hotz and Songman Kang, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 166, No. 1 (January 2012), 3-16 

·       "Does Affirmative Action Lead to Mismatch? A New Test and Evidence" with Esteban Aucejo, Hanming Fang, and Ken Spenner, Quantitative Economics, Vol. 2, No. 3 (November 2011), 303-333 

·       "Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity" with Robert Miller, Econometrica, Vol. 7, No. 6 (November 2011), 1823-1868 (formerly titled “CCP Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity”) 

·       "Practical Methods for Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models" with Paul Ellickson, Annual Review of Economics Vol. 3, (September, 2011), 363-394 

·       "Representation versus Assimilation: How do Preferences in College Admissions Affect Social Interactions?" with Shakeeb Khan and Jacob Vigdor, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 95, Nos. 1-2 (February 2011), 1-15 

·       "The Distributional Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases when Both Labor Supply and Labor Demand are Endogenous" with Tom Ahn and Walter Wessels, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 29, No. 1 (January, 2011), 12-23 Proofs 

·       "Beyond Signaling and Human Capital: Education and the Revelation of Ability" with Pat Bayer and Aurel Hizmo, AEJ: Applied Economics, Vol. 2, No. 4 (October 2010), 76-104 

·       "Does the River Spill Over? Estimating the Economic Returns to Attending a Racially Diverse College" with Jacob Vigdor, Economic Inquiry, Vol 47, No. 3 (July, 2010), 537-557 

·       "Explaining Cross-Racial Differences in Teenage Labor Force Participation: Results from a Two-Sided Matching Model" with Tom Ahn, Alvin Murphy and Omari Swinton, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 156, No. 1 (May, 2010), 201-211 

·       "The Effects of Gender Interactions in the Lab and in the Field" with Kate Antonovics and Randy Walsh, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 91, No. 1 (February, 2009), 152-162 

·       "The Economic Returns to An MBA" with Jane Cooley and Andrew Hussey, International Economic Review, Vol. 49, No. 3 (August 2008), 873-899 

·       "Living Rationally Under the Volcano? An Empirical Analysis of Heavy Drinking and Smoking" with Holger Sieg and Frank Sloan, International Economic Review, Vol. 48, No. 1 (February, 2007) , 37-65 

·       "Games and Discrimination: Lessons from the Weakest Link" with Kate Antonovics and Randy Walsh, Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Fall, 2005), 918-947 

·       "Affirmative Action in Higher Education: How do Admission and Financial Aid Rules Affect Future Earnings?" Econometrica, Vol. 73, No. 5 (September, 2005), 1477-1524 

·       "Do People Value Racial Diversity? Evidence From Nielsen Ratings" with Eric Aldrich and Jacob Vigdor, Topics in Economic Analysis and Policy, Vol. 5, No. 1 (2005), Article 4 

·       "Peer Effects in Medical School" with Sean Nicholson, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 89, Nos. 2-3 (February, 2005), 327-350 

·       "Ability Sorting and the Returns to College Major" Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 121, Nos. 1-2 (August, 2004), 343-375 

·       "Paying to Queue: A Theory of Locational Differences in Nonunion Wages" with Tom Ahn, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 55, No. 3 (May 2004), 564-579 

·       "The Dynamic Implications of Search Discrimination" Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 87, Nos.7-8 (August, 2003), 1681-1707 

·       "Finite Mixture Distributions, Sequential Likelihood, and the EM Algorithm" with John B. Jones, Econometrica, Vol. 71, No.3 (May, 2003), 933-946 Simulation Appendix