A feature shared by certain major revolutions is that they were not
anticipated. Here is an explanation, which hinges on the observation that
people who come to dislike their government are apt to hide their desire
for change as long as the opposition seems weak. Because of this preference
falsification, a government that appears unshakable might see its support
crumble following a slight surge in the opposition's apparent size, caused
by events insignificant in and of themselves. Unlikely though the revolution
may have appeared in foresight, it will in hindsight appear inevitable
because its occurrence exposes a panoply of previously hidden conflicts.
Public Choice, 61 (April 1989): 41-74.