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ILUT</span></strong><strong><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;color:#FFCC00'><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p> </td> <td width=200 style='width:150.0pt;background:#548DD4;mso-background-themecolor: text2;mso-background-themetint:153;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <td colspan=3 style='background:black;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt; -moz-background-clip: border;-moz-background-origin: padding;-moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; background-position-x:0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-attachment: scroll'> <table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width=833 style='width:624.9pt;mso-cellspacing:0in;mso-yfti-tbllook:1184;mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes'> <td width=20 valign=top style='width:15.25pt;background:white;padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt; -moz-background-clip: border;-moz-background-origin: padding;-moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; background-position-x:0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-attachment: scroll'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=17 valign=top style='width:13.1pt;background:white;padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt; -moz-background-clip: border;-moz-background-origin: padding;-moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; background-position-x:0%;background-position-y: 0%;background-attachment: scroll'><!-- Change to a photo of yourself if you want to --> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=795 valign=top style='width:596.55pt;background:white;padding: 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt;-moz-background-clip: border;-moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;background-position-x:0%; background-position-y:0%;background-attachment:scroll'> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>Research Webpage<o:p></o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'>Link to my <a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/cv.pdf"><span style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>CV</span></a> (updated October 2011)<o:p></o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>Working Papers:<o:p></o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='tab-stops:174.1pt'><strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><span style='mso-tab-count:1'>                                                          </span></span></strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/BianchiIlut_Policy_Mix.pdf">Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents Beliefs</a>, with <a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~fb36/">Francesco Bianchi</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;text-align:justify'><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>Abstract</span></i><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>: We estimate a model for the US economy that allows for a switch from a non-<span class=SpellE>Ricardian</span> to a <span class=SpellE>Ricardian</span> regime. We find that the change occurred in the early `80s and we point out the following results. First, if the <span class=SpellE>Ricardian</span> regime had been in place since 1955 or if agents had anticipated the switch, the Great Inflation would not have occurred and debt would have been higher. This is because the rise in trend inflation and the decline in debt of the `70s are caused by a series of fiscal shocks that are inflationary only under the non-<span class=SpellE>Ricardian</span> regime. Second, the reversal in the debt-to-GDP ratio dynamics, the sudden drop in inflation, and the fall in output of the early `80s are explained by the regime switch itself. If the regime change had not occurred, inflation would have been high for another ten years. Third, the regime switch can account for the change in the persistence and volatility of inflation.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst><span style='font-size:10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/amb_cycles.pdf">Ambiguous Business Cycles</a>, with <a href="http://www.stanford.edu/~schneidr/">Martin Schneider</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;text-align:justify'><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>Abstract</span></i><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>: This paper considers business cycle models with agents who dislike both risk and ambiguity (<span class=SpellE>Knightian</span> uncertainty). Ambiguity aversion is described by recursive multiple priors preferences that capture agents' lack of confidence in probability assessments. While modeling changes in risk typically requires higher-order approximations, changes in ambiguity in our models work like changes in conditional means. Our models thus allow for uncertainty shocks but can still be solved and estimated using first-order approximations. In our estimated medium-scale DSGE model, a loss of confidence about productivity works like  unrealized' bad news. Time-varying confidence emerges as a major source of business cycle fluctuations.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;text-align:justify'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><strong><span style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span></strong><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/uip_ilut.pdf">Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle</a> (R&amp;R, AEJ Macro)</span><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;font-weight:normal'> </span></strong><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast style='margin-left:.75in;mso-add-space: auto;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo4'><![if !supportLists]><strong><span style='font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>-<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span></strong><![endif]><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;font-weight:normal'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/app_uip_ilut.pdf">online appendix</a></span></strong><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in'><strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;text-align:justify'><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>Abstract</span></i><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>: High-interest-rate currencies tend to appreciate in the future relative to low-interest-rate currencies instead of depreciating as uncovered-interest-parity (UIP) predicts. I construct a model of exchange-rate determination in which ambiguity-averse agents face a dynamic filtering problem featuring signals of uncertain precision. Solving a max-min problem, agents act upon a worst-case signal precision and systematically underestimate the hidden state that controls payoffs. Thus, on average, agents next periods perceive positive innovations, which generates an upward re-evaluation of the strategy's profitability and implies ex-post departures from UIP. The model also produces predictable <span class=SpellE>expectational</span> errors, negative <span class=SpellE>skewness</span> and time-series momentum for currency speculation payoffs.</span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/evidence_dynamic_contracts_bi.pdf">Evidence for Dynamic Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending</a>, with <a href="http://sites.google.com/site/pbenczur/">Peter <span class=SpellE>Benczur</span></a> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in'><strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;text-align:justify'><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>Abstract</span></i><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>: This paper presents direct evidence for self-enforcing dynamic contracts in sovereign bank lending. Unlike the existing empirical literature, its instrumental variables method allows for distinguishing a direct influence of past repayment problems on current spreads (a  punishment effect in prices) from an indirect effect through higher expected future default probabilities. Such a punishment provides positive surplus to lenders after a default, a feature that characterizes dynamic contracts. Using data on bank loans to developing countries between 1973-1981 and constructing continuous variables for credit history, we find evidence that most of the influence of past repayment problems is through the direct, punishment channel.</span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/mp_booms.pdf">Monetary Policy and Stock Market Booms</a>, with <a href="http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~lchrist/">Larry <span class=SpellE>Christiano</span></a>, <a href="http://www.nber.org/people/roberto_motto">Roberto Motto</a>, <a href="http://ideas.repec.org/e/pro107.html">Massimo <span class=SpellE>Rostagno</span></a>, (NBER WP 16402, prepared for the 2010 Jackson Hole symposium).<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in'><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><strong><o:p></o:p></strong></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;text-align:justify'><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>Abstract</span></i><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>: Historical data and model simulations support the following conclusion. Inflation is low during stock market booms, so that an interest rate rule that is too narrowly focused on inflation destabilizes asset markets and the broader economy. Adjustments to the interest rate rule can remove this source of welfare reducing instability. For example, allowing an independent role for credit growth (beyond its role in constructing the inflation forecast) would reduce the volatility of output and asset prices.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;color:windowtext'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/boom_bust.pdf">Monetary Policy and Stock Market Boom-Bust Cycles</a>, with <a href="http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~lchrist/">Larry <span class=SpellE>Christiano</span></a>, <a href="http://www.nber.org/people/roberto_motto">Roberto Motto</a>, <a href="http://ideas.repec.org/e/pro107.html">Massimo <span class=SpellE>Rostagno</span></a> (2008<span class=GramE>,<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  </span>European</span> Central Bank Working Paper No. 955). <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;text-align:justify'><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>Abstract</span></i><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>: We explore the dynamic effects of news about a future technology improvement which turns out ex post to be overoptimistic. We find that it is difficult to generate a boom-bust cycle (a period in which stock prices, consumption, investment and employment all <span class=GramE>rise</span> and then crash) in response to such a news shock, in a standard real business cycle model. However, a monetized version of the model which stresses sticky wages and an inflation-targeting monetary policy naturally generates a welfare-reducing boom-bust cycle in response to a news shock. We explore the possibility that integrating credit growth into monetary policy may result in improved performance. We discuss the robustness of our analysis to alternative specifications of the labor market, in which wage-setting frictions do not distort on going firm/worker relations.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraph><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraph><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'>Discussions:</span></strong><strong><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><strong><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-family:TTdcr10;mso-bidi-font-family:TTdcr10;color:windowtext'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";color:windowtext'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/discussion_ilut_martin_ventura.pdf">Discussion</a> of  <a href="http://www.econ.upf.edu/~martin/EGB.pdf">Economic Growth with Bubbles</a> , by Alberto Martin and <span class=SpellE>Jaume</span> Ventura, Joint Central Bank Conference (Zurich, 2011)</span><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.25in;mso-layout-grid-align:none; text-autospace:none'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";color:windowtext'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/discussion_ilut_basu_bundick.pdf">Discussion</a> of  <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/events/2011/dsge-models-workshop/papers/BasuBundick.pdf">Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand</a> , by <span class=SpellE>Susanto</span> <span class=SpellE>Basu</span> and Brent <span class=SpellE>Bundick</span>, NBER Workshop on Methods and Applications for DSGE Models (Philadelphia Fed, 2011)</span><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='mso-layout-grid-align:none; text-autospace:none'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";color:windowtext'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/discussion_ilut_nimark.pdf">Discussion</a> of  <a href="http://www.cepr.org/meets/wkcn/1/1762/papers/NimarkFinal-P.pdf">Man-Bites-Dog Business Cycles</a> by <span class=SpellE>Kristoffer</span> <span class=SpellE>Nimark</span>, CEPR European Summer Symposium in International Macroeconomics (</span><span class=SpellE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Gerzensee</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>, 2011</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:windowtext'>)</span><b><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='text-indent:-.25in;mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><![if !supportLists]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><![endif]><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";color:windowtext'><a href="http://econ.duke.edu/~cli2/index_files/discussion_ilut_chugh.pdf">Discussion</a> of  <a href="http://www.skchugh.com/images/Chugh_FirmRiskLeverage.pdf">Firm Risk and Leverage-Based Business Cycles</a> , by Sanjay <span class=SpellE>Chugh</span>, NBER Workshop on Methods and Applications for DSGE Models (Atlanta Fed, 2010)</span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><strong><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoListParagraph style='mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace: none'><strong><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></strong></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:8.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes;height:3.0pt'> <td width=20 valign=top style='width:15.25pt;background:white;padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt; height:3.0pt;-moz-background-clip: border;-moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;background-position-x:0%; background-position-y: 0%;background-attachment:scroll'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=17 valign=top style='width:13.1pt;background:white;padding:6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt; height:3.0pt;-moz-background-clip: border;-moz-background-origin: padding; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous;background-position-x:0%; background-position-y: 0%;background-attachment:scroll'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> <td width=795 valign=top style='width:596.55pt;background:white;padding: 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt 6.0pt;height:3.0pt;-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-origin: padding;-moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; background-position-x:0%;background-position-y:0%;background-attachment: scroll'> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;color:windowtext'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </div> </body> </html>