Session 1: Oil Prices & the Macroeconomy

9-9:35 AM: “The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil”, by LUTZ KILIAN (University of Michigan)

9:35:-10:10 PM Oil Price Shocks and Industrial Production: Is the Relationship Linear? By ANA MARIA HERRERA (Wayne State University)

Session 2: Forecasting and Identification

10:30-11:05 AM: “Structural Multi-equation Macroeconomic Models: Identification-robust Estimation and Fit”, by LYNDA KHALAF (Carleton University), joint with J.M. Dufour and M. Kichian

11:05-11:40 AM: “Reality Checks and Nested Forecast Model Comparisons”, by MIKE McCRACKEN (St. Louis Fed), joint with T. Clark

11:40-12:15 PM: “A Clustered Factor Approach to International Business Cycles”, by MICHAEL OWYANG (St. Louis Fed), joint with O. Savascin and N. Francis

12:30 PM: Lunch!

List of Participants:

Ben Carston, Duke University

Bill Dupor, Ohio State University

Domenico Ferraro, Duke University

Neville Francis, UNC Chapel Hill

Iaryna Grynkiv, Duke University

Xu Han, NC State

Ana Herrera, Wayne State U.

Atsushi Inoue, NC State

Robert Jung, U. of Erfurt

Lynda Khalaf, Carleton U.

Lutz Kilian, U. of Michigan

Malte Knuppel, Deutsche Bundesbank

Kai Li, Duke University

Mike McCracken, St Louis Fed

Marcelo Ochoa, Duke University

Dong Hwan Oh, Duke University

Michael Owyang, St Louis Fed

Andrew Patton, Duke University

Fulvio Pegoraro, Bank of France

Barry Rafferty, Duke University

Barbara Rossi, Duke University

Tatevik Sekhposyan, Bank of Canada

Tara Sinclair, Washington University

Aaron Smith, UC Davis

Rosen Valchev, Duke University

Mark Watson, Princeton University

Jonathan Wright, Johns Hopkins