ÿWPC, Á™‰ÜÄOS|ìàÙ‹Sèøýa¢ÎA(#ìÈÀ¢•u‘I¢9Äàó‚„õ‚s £÷R£c âF»è±î3½¼ ²Ž÷¡ëo$¢=¢d ÔÒþWiè‰6 ïØ K.Œ-[ÔŠ7ŽÎˆÒÀ–»d®â…@0®VhŸ øÆ°°lEÞ†¶¿Zzðeðì¥ù¼Þ]¤ˆÑÌkVÈÔºÙn (±hxiPª¡­és›fÞ·u2ÀÂû"×l„íÛ0Ã1ÀU¹ì›ßÊ(£ÕŸÏ.³ÐÁìOôl¹Ïu…³ºSÉ—&ºHB«×jGcíwpºÇ _?ë½l :”gÅÒÂùsoìûïäW¢Ë:䇸øÄ XF6Át¤–FŸ_ÈñÖ4Õ\¿’©Uy¾´ýì¡!]ؼçQfEÜpŒ×»é—ÅSánJVF‡\|…ò@O|ŠkPc°ˆÉܶMñv`vý£u ñMÛ3¸ —\ÞÑó§ã\L !­¹n.lNÕ˜HJǃõPÍ3wã¶È Ú àëD,8P“àÒKçkâëãXÇ\ÊyÙ…&îõ=2Ç6A&Œ÷,5Ä\ä¿·lN ¾Ô-6’¡"lÓ«–Ó6hóÏg„)#!>UN_ %­ 0(³w@Û4/> m@WŒ_ 0lë 0DW –› B1  s u ˆ w˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜˜ B˜HP LaserJet 4 Plus,ð,,,,,ð0xÈhH  Z6Times New Roman RegularX($¡¡ ÐDÑÒDÓÔDÕÖ×EØÙE=t÷" Filˆ/ƒ3|xÙÿU‹ÿÀÀÀ  ‚Ý ƒ üÝ$Ýà  àòòÚ  Ú1Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý›Ó/Àd/ÓFor€analysis€of€determinants€of€fertility,€see€¢Birdsall£€and€Jamison€(1983),€Tien€(12984),Ð ° ТPoston£€and€¢Gu£€(1987),€Zhang€(1990),€Johnson€(1994),€and€Shultz€and€Yi€(1995);€for€studies€ofÏdemographic€trends,€see,€for€example,€Luther,€¢Feeney£€and€Zhang€(1990),€and€Freedman,€¢Xiao£,€LiÏand€¢Lavely£€(1990).€€Detailed€descriptions€of€Chinaððs€population€policies,€their€implementation,Ïand€demographic€trends€since€1949€are€contained€in€three€books,€¢Coale£€(1984),€Banister€(1987)Ïand€Peng€(1991).€€€€€€€((3üÝ$¤¤Ý ƒ!ÝÝ  Ýà  àòòÚ  Ú0Ú  Úóó(#Ã$òòÚ  Ú0Ú  Úóó ŒÝ ƒ üÝ$Ýà  àòòÚ  Ú7Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý›Results€consistent€with€the€parity€findings€of€Luther€et.€al.€(1990).€€€ 8Ý ƒ üÝ$Ýà  àòòÚ  Ú5Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý›Other€reasons€for€relaxing€the€marriage€age:€(1)€emphasis€on€law€since€the€reforms,€(2)Ð ° Ðability€of€enforcing€high,€legal€marriage€ages€(Tien€1983,€¢p98£).€(3)€administrative€controlÏweakened€¢sicne£€reforms.€€Other€reasons.€ –Ý ƒ üÝ$Ýà  àòòÚ  Ú6Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý›Add€a€long€footnote€to€explain€the€differences€in€using€individual€and€group€data. kÝ ƒ üÝ$Ýà  àòòÚ  Ú2Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý›Description€of€the€òòComplete€Bookóó. Ý ƒ üÝ$Ýà  àòòÚ  Ú4Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý›Provincial€governments€set€the€late€marriage€age.€€For€instance,€in€the€early€¢1970s£,€theÐ ° Ðage€of€late€marriage€was€25€for€women€in€urban€areas€and€23€in€rural€areas€in€Beijing,€¢Hunan£,ÏJilin,€but€23€for€urban€women€in€¢Jiangsu£€and€¢Hebei£€provinces€(Peng€1991,€¢p37£).€€In€many€urbanÏareas,€the€instituted€high€ages€were€25€and€28€for€women€and€men,€or€a€combined€age€of€50€forÏthe€prospective€spouses€(Banister€1987,€¢p154£).€ mÝ ƒ üÝ$Ýà  àòòÚ  Ú3Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý›Discuss€data€advantages€in€this€footnote. dÝ ƒ!ÝÝ  ÝÓ  ÓñÙññØñ2222ñØññÙññÙñ€€€€ñÙñ›ÌÌÌÌÓÓÌÌÌÌà@ÓÓ ìàò òChinaððs€Population€Policies€and€Changing€Demographic€Structureó óˆÐ ð@  ÐÌà@  ìà¢Dandan£€Chen,€€Marjorie€¢McElroy£,€€and€€Dennis€T.€YangˆÌÓÓà@ÔÔìàDepartment€of€EconomicsˆÌà@UU#ìàDuke€UniversityˆÌÓ$ÓÌÌÌà@ìàòòExtended€Outline€„€Working€DraftóóˆÐ ` ÐÌÌà@ÊÊ$ìàOctober€1997ˆÌÌÐ  p&À!$ Ðà@yy&ìàò òñ×ñð ðOldðð€ñ×ñAbstractó óˆÐ ° Ðà  àChinaððs€population€policies€in€the€¢1970s£€emphasized€later€marriage,€longer€spacing,€andÏfewer€children.€€Since€1979,€the€focus€has€been€on€restricting€the€number€of€births.€€We€argue€thatÏthese€two€policy€regimes€have€distinctive€impacts€on€shaping€Chinaððs€demographic€structure.€ÏEmpirical€results€from€analyzing€a€1992€survey€on€ð ðHousehold€Economy€and€Fertility€in€TenÐ 0 € ÐProvinces€and€Municipalitiesðð€show€that,€in€the€¢1980s£,€(1)€the€number€of€births€per€couple€declinedÐ `  Ðsignificantly,€(2)€women€married€at€younger€ages€and€became€pregnant€sooner€than€in€¢1970s£,€(3)Ïthere€is€no€evidence€of€infanticide€of€girls€in€the€more€restrictive€policy€regimesñÐñ€in€the€¢1980s£ñÐñ,€and€(4)€the€achievedÏand€desired€ñÓñeducation€attainments€ñÓññÔññÎñschoolingñÎññÎñ€ñÎññÔññÑñhave€increased€consistentlyñÑññÒñeducation€attainments€for€childrenñÒñ.€€We€find€these€changing€demographicÏpatterns€differ€ñÕñsignifñÕññÖñiñÖññÕñcantly€ñÕñacross€provinces€and€rural/urban€regions.€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌÐ  pÀ ÐØØÑ8€šÂXXdðXXdð8Ñà@ÓÓ ìàò òChinaððs€Population€Policies€and€Changing€Demographic€Structureó óˆÐ ° ÐÌò òI.€Introductionó óÐ pÀ Ðà  àEffective€implementation€of€Chinaððs€population€policies€started€with€a€State€CouncilÏDirective€€issued€in€July€1971.€€In€that€Directive,€premier€¢Zhou£€¢Enlai£€initiated€a€nationwideÏcampaign€by€calling€on€cadres€of€all€administrative€levels€to€conduct€propaganda€and€education€onÏbirth€control.€€The€specific€goals€of€that€campaign€were€later€summarized€as€ð ðWan€(Later),€XiÐ ð@  Ð(Longer),€and€¢Shao£€(Fewer),ðð€which€refer€to€later€marriages,€longer€birth€intervals,€and€fewerÐ Ð  Ðchildren.€€In€1979,€the€central€government€tightened€its€population€controls.€€In€order€to€achieve€theÏtarget€per€capita€income€by€the€end€of€the€century,€€China€adopted€the€ð ðone„child„per„coupleðð€policy,Ð à Ðthe€worldððs€first€and€largest€compulsory€family€planning€program€that€has€lasted€until€today.€€TheseÏpopulation€policies€and€their€changes€have€had€profound€effects€in€shaping€Chinaððs€demographicÏstructure.€Ìà  àMuch€has€been€written€about€Chinaððs€population€policies€and€demographic€change.¢×ƒ ×Ý ƒ #ÃÝòòÚ  Ú1Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×£€€€OneÐ ` Ðimportant€finding€is€that€Chinaððs€fertility€as€measured€by€the€total€fertility€rate€(¢TFR£)€declinedÏrapidly€in€the€recent€decades,€dropping€from€5.81€in€1970€to€2.24€in€1980,€and€has€stayed€below€2Ïsince€1992€(Peng€1996,€¢p874£).€€There€are€also€findings€on€the€age€at€marriage.€€The€mean€age€at€firstÏmarriage€increased€consistently€in€the€¢1970s£€(¢Coale£€1984,€¢p41£„2;€Peng,€¢p119£„123),€but€in€recentÐ $à" Ðyears,€earlier€marriages€have€been€observed€(Yi,€1994).€€Researchers€have€also€investigated€genderÏratios€at€birth€in€the€recent€two€decades€(¢Johnasson£€and€¢Nygren£,€1991).€€€€However,€the€focus€of€theseÏstudies€has€been€on€describing€the€demographic€trends.€€The€relationship€between€the€observedÏpatterns€and€the€changing€population€policies€and€regimes€have€not€yet€been€investigated.€€€This€isÏan€important€research€question€because€its€results€may€provide€implications€for€future€policies.Ìà  àIn€this€paper,€we€classify€and€analyze€the€policy€regimes.€€Chinaððs€population€policies€in€theÏ¢1970s£€emphasized€later€marriage,€longer€spacing,€and€fewer€children.€€The€policies€in€¢1980s£€placedÏrestrictions€on€number€of€births.€€We€argue€that€these€two€policy€regimes€differ€in€their€policyÏtargets:€€the€first€supports€€family€planning€activities€that€help€to€reduce€fertility€and€the€secondÏregime€placed€direct€restrictions€on€the€number€of€children.€€The€two€policy€regimes€also€differ€inÏtheir€methods€of€implementation.€€In€the€first€episode,€implementation€primarily€relied€onÏpropaganda,€education,€and€persuasion.€€In€contrast,€the€second€period€relied€heavily€on€economicÏincentives€and€coercion.€€€We€argue€that€they€are€distinctive€regimes€that€resulted€in€differentÏdemographic€responses.€€These€discussions€provide€reasons€for€explaining€the€observed€patterns€ofÏdemographic€change.€€€€Ìà  àWe€study€a€wide€range€of€Chinaððs€demographic€changes€since€1970,€which€include€fertility,Ïage€at€marriage,€age€of€first€birth,€schooling€attainment€of€children,€contraceptive€use,€and€changesÏin€gender€composition€at€birth.€€We€will€quantify€and€test€whether€these€demographic€changes€areÏsystematically€different€between€¢1970s£€and€1980's.€€We€will€pay€special€attention€to€regionalÏdifferences,€and€rural€and€urban€differences.€€To€our€knowledge,€this€is€first€study€that€investigatesÏhow€the€changes€in€population€policies€over€time€have€impacted€Chinaððs€demographic€patterns.Ìà  àUtilize€two€sources€of€information:€a€new€book€and€a€national€survey.€€We€reexamine€theÐ ,`'* Ðevolution€of€Chinaððs€population€policies€by€utilizing€the€recent€publication€of€òòThe€Complete€BookÐ ° Ðof€Chinaððs€Family€Planningóó€that€contains€an€exhaustive€set€of€important€documentation€issued€byÐ à Ðthe€state€council€and€the€central€party€committee,€law€and€regulations,€and€rich€facts€on€ChinaððsÏfamily€planning€activities.׃×Ý ƒ #ÃÝòòÚ  Ú2Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€Data€description:€extensive€demographic€information€for€òòthe€1970€andÐ P   Ð1980€marriage€cohortsóó.€€Utilize€a€large€household€survey€(CASS€1994).€€Advantages€over€1982Ð 0 € ÐCensus€of€Population,€1982€One„Per„Thousand€Fertility€Survey€and€1988€Two„Per„ThousandÏNational€Fertility€Survey.׃€×Ý ƒ #ÃÝòòÚ  Ú3Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€Able€to€examine€completed€and€desired€education€investment,€expectedÐ ð@  Ðbenefits€of€children,€etc.€€€€Ìà  àIn€empirical€analysis,€examine€year„specific€¢TFR£;€€number€of€births€per€couple€by€marriageÏcohorts;€age€at€marriage€by€marriage€cohorts;€age€of€first€birth€by€marriage€cohorts;€interval€betweenÏmarriage€and€first€birth€by€marriage€cohorts;€use€of€contraception€between€marriage€and€first€birthÏby€marriage€cohorts;€sex€ratios€at€birth€in€specific€years;€family€composition€of€children€by€gender;€Ïcompleted€years€of€schooling€by€marriage€cohorts;€and€desired€years€of€schooling€by€marriageÏcohorts.€€Results€are€consistent€with€the€hypothesis€that€the€population€policies€practiced€in€theÏ¢1970s£€and€in€the€¢1980s£€did€have€differential€influence€in€shaping€Chinaððs€population€structure.Ìà  àRoad€map.€€Section€2€on€evolution€of€population€policies€in€China.€€Section€3€defines€policyÏregimes€and€analyze€their€impacts€on€behavior.€€Section€4€describes€the€data.€€Section€5€documentsÏChinaððs€changing€demographic€structure.€€Section€6€concludes.€€€€Ìà  àÐ p&À!$ Ðò òII.€Population€Policies€in€China€€ó óÐ ° Ðà  àThere€were€two€family€planning€campaigns€in€the€first€two€decades€of€the€Peopleððs€RepublicÏof€China.€€The€first€campaign€took€place€in€1956€when€the€central€government€started€to€emphasizeÏlate€marriage€and€birth€controls.€€However,€this€campaign€was€soon€interrupted€with€the€anti„rightistÏcampaign€in€1957€and€the€launching€of€the€Great€Leap€Forward€in€1958€(Banister€1987,€147„149;ÏPeng€1991,€¢p19£„21).€€After€the€great€famine€period€of€1959„61,€the€second€family€planning€campaignÏtook€place€between€1962€and€1966.€€In€that€campaign,€the€government€encouraged€late€marriage,Ïfewer€children€and,€for€the€first€time,€supplies€of€contraceptives€were€distributed€for€free.€€However,Ïthis€second€family€planning€campaign€came€to€a€sudden€halt€in€1966€when€China€plunged€into€theÏGreat€Cultural€Revolution.€€There€were€chaos€and€political€struggle€in€the€first€several€years€of€theÏcultural€revolution,€and€family€planning€was€rarely€mentioned.€€When€the€nation€slowly€recoveredÏfrom€the€chaos,€family€planning€again€was€on€the€agenda.€(Banister€1987151„52;€Peng€1991,€¢p34£„¼35).Ìà  àThe€achievements€of€these€two€earlier€campaigns:€exposure€to€family€planning€and€birthÏcontrol€techniques;€€€the€government€had€removed€barriers€of€practicing€birth€controls,€includingÏlegalization€of€abortion€and€sterilization;€production€and€dissemination€of€contraceptives€(BanisterÏ1987,€¢p152£).ÌÌòòThe€ð ðLater,€Longer,€Fewerðð€Campaign€in€the€¢1970s£óóÐ p&À!$ Ðà  àEffective€implementation€of€Chinaððs€population€policies€started€with€the€State€CouncilÏDirective€(Number€51)€issued€in€July€1971.€€In€that€Directive,€premier€¢Zhou£€¢Enlai£€personallyÏinitiated€a€family€planning€campaign€by€calling€on€the€cadres€in€the€nation€to€conduct€propagandaÐ ,`'* Ðand€education€on€birth€control.€€The€specific€goals€of€this€campaign€that€lasted€for€most€1970€canÏbe€summarized€as€ð ðWan€(Later),€Xi€(Longer),€and€¢Shao£€(Fewer),ðð€which€mean€later€marriage,€longerÐ à Ðbirth€intervals,€and€fewer€children€(Tien€1980).€€€€Ìà  àOrganizational€support€and€family€planning€networks.€€The€establishment€of€State€CouncilÏFamily€Planning€Leading€Group€and€the€Offices€of€Family€Planning€were€established€at€provincialÏand€all€other€lower€administrative€levels.€€(Peng€1996,€¢p1410£;€and€Peng€1991,€¢p36£„7).€€Planned„birthÏcommittees€operated€at€the€level€of€production€teams€in€rural€areas€and€neighborhood€districts€inÏcities€(Banister€1987,€¢p169£).€€These€organizations€were€responsible€to€coordinate€family€planningÏpropaganda,€to€ensure€the€supply€of€contraceptives,€and€to€persuade€people€to€comply€with€the€stateÏpopulation€target.€€Reorganization€of€the€State€Council€Family€Planning€Committee€in€1978€that€wasÏheaded€by€vice„premier€Chen€¢Muhua£.€Ìà  àThe€ð ðfewerðð€policies€„€ð ðone€is€not€too€few,€two€is€good,€and€three€is€too€many.ðð€€Since€theÐ P  Ðmid¢„1970s£,€the€central€government€formulated€provincial€population€targets€that€were€passed€toÏprovinces€and€lower€administrative€units€for€implementation€(Peng€1991,€¢p37£).€€In€1973,€òòpopulationÐ ` Ðtargetsóó€were€for€the€first€time€included€in€the€national€economic€planning€(Peng€1987,€¢p23£).€€€Ð ð@ Ðà  àThe€ð ðlaterðð€policy€„€later€marriage€and€child€bearing.€€The€òòMarriage€Law€of€1950óó:€the€legalÐ Ð  Ðage€of€marriage€for€men€is€20€years€of€age,€and€for€women€is€18€year€of€age€(Peng€1996,€¢p37£).ÏDuring€the€¢1970s£,€the€target€òòð ðlate€marriage€ageððóó€varied€with€localities.€€Also€called€òòð ðauthorizedÐ $à" Ðminimum€age€of€marriageððóó€(Tien€1983,€¢p96£).€€General€guidelines€for€rural€areas€were€that€womenÐ p&À!$ Ðwere€allowed€to€marry€at€the€age€23€and€men€25.€€In€urban€areas,€27€for€men€and€25€for€womenÏ(Peng€1987,€¢p23£).€€€Ages€were€slightly€higher€than€urban€areas€(Peng€1996,€¢p14£).€€Also€see€PengÏ(1991,€¢p37£)€and€Banister€(1987,€¢p153£„55).€€In€some€areas,€marriages€were€granted€when€the€sum€ofÐ ,`'* Ðages€of€the€partners€was€over€50€(Tien,€1983,€¢p93£).€€There€were€provincial€variations.¢×ƒ×Ý ƒ #ÃÝòòÚ  Ú4Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×£€€à Ð àÐ ° Ðà  àOne€major€mechanism€to€implement€late€marriages€is€the€òòmarriage€registration€systemóó€(PengÐ à Ð1991,€¢p22£„23).€€€There€were€marriage€registration€stations.€€Typically,€the€groom€and€bride€had€toÏobtain€letters€of€introduction,€in€effect,€permission€to€marry€from€their€respective€work€units€toÏcomplete€marriage€registration.€€Ìà  àThe€ð ðlongerðð€policy€„€Birth€spacing€of€3€years€or€longer€by€government€guidelines€(PengÐ `  Ð1996,€¢p14£).€€An€interval€of€3€to€5€years€between€births€was€considered€as€ideal€(Peng€1991,€¢p37£).€€Ï€Ìà  àRegional€variations:€€decentralized€policy€implementation€is€a€key€feature€of€Chinaððs€familyÏplanning€programs.€€National€government€set€population€targets€and€general€policies.€€ProvincialÏgovernment€interpret€the€guidelines€and€formulate€their€policies€according€to€local€conventions€andÏconditions.€€The€power€of€implementing€this€policy€lied€in€the€hands€of€provincial€governmentsÏ(Peng€1991,€¢p37£).€€€Detailed€differences€are€documented€in€Peng€(1991).€€Justifications€for€settingÏprovincial€dummies€in€the€empirical€analysis.€€€Ìà  àRemarkable€rural„urban€differences€in€policy€and€implementations€„€descriptions€should€beÏincluded€here.€€These€will€justify€using€rural„urban€dummy€variables€in€the€regressions€(variousÏreferences).€€Ìà  àOther€aspects€of€policy:€€government€expenditures,€contraceptive€supplies,€contraceptiveÐ $à" Ðpractices,€etc.€€In€1974,€free€supplies€of€contraceptives€nationwide€(Peng€1991,€¢p23£).€€In€1978,Ïrequirement€of€family€planning€was€written€in€the€new€Chinese€Constitution€(Peng€1991,€¢p24£).Ìà  àTightening€up€the€policies€in€the€late€¢1970s£.€€1977„78,€urban€and€rural€couples€must€stop€atÏtwo€children€(¢Hardeee£„¢Cleaveland£€and€Banister€1988,€¢p272£).€€1978,€State€Directive€[1978,€no.28]:Ïlate€marriage€age€23€for€women€and€25€for€men€in€rural€areas;€age€in€urban€areas€were€higher;Ïencourage€couples€to€have€one€child,€maximum€of€two;€spacing€two€years;€practice€punishments€andÏrewards;€incentives€linked€to€rural€grain€allocation€and€urban€housing€allocation€(Peng€1996,€¢p12£„4).ÌÌòòThe€One„Child€Family€Policy€Since€1979óóÐ ° Ðà  àReasons€for€the€more€restrictive€policy:€the€òòmajor€motivationóó€was€economic€considerations.€Ð à ÐThe€long„term€economic€plan€was€to€raised€GNP€per€capita€from€250€dollars€in€1979€to€1000€dollarsÏin€the€year€2000.€€But€there€was€the€anticipated€baby€boom:€birth€rates€between€1962„71€wereÏgeneral€above€3%.€€Starting€from€1985,€this€cohorts€of€baby€boomers€will€enter€the€age€of€marriageÏand€fertility.€€This€will€consequently€result€in€ten€years€of€fertility€boom€(Peng€1996,€¢p66£).€€In€orderÏto€achieve€the€economic€target,€population€has€to€be€controlled€under€1.2€billion€by€the€year€2000.€ÏIn€August€1978,€the€vice„premier€Chen€¢Muhau£,€then€the€head€of€the€State€Family€PlanningÏCommission,€provided€statistical€rationale€for€the€new€campaign.€€The€initial€national€target€goal€wasÏthat€80€per€cent€of€all€urban€couples€and€50€per€cent€of€rural€couples€should€have€one€child.€€Later,Ïthe€targeted€per€cent€of€single„families€were€raised€to€95€per€cent€in€the€cities€and€90€per€cent€in€theÏcountryside€(Chen€1978;€€Peng€1991,€¢p24£).€€€€€€€€€€€€€Ìà  àIn€1978€and€1979,€discussions€of€the€one„child€policies€continued€without€implementationÏ(Peng€1996,€¢p13£„4:€one€ideal,€two€maximum).€€Ð ,`'* Ðà  àIn€September€1980,€the€Central€Committee€of€the€Communist€Party€issued€an€òòopen€letteróó€toÐ ° Ðall€communist€and€youth€league€members,€which€formally€marked€the€start€of€implementing€the€one„¼child€family€policy.€€The€national€policy€was€that€every€couple€must€stop€at€one€child€unless€givenÏspecial€permission€by€local€officials€because€of€real€difficulties.€€Late€marriage€and€late€childbearingÏwas€still€encouraged.€€The€party€and€the€government€decided€to€provide€incentives€in€child€care,Ïschooling,€health€care,€employment,€college€admissions,€urban€housing,€and€rural€estate€land€toÏsingle„child€families.€€Third€child€was€strictly€prohibited€(Peng€1996,€¢p16£).€Ìà  à1982,€Central€Committee€Directive€[1982,€no.11]:€one„child€policy€in€urban€areas;€one„childÏin€rural€areas;€two€children€with€special€permissions;€Ìà  àDetailed€òòpunishment€and€rewardsóó€at€the€national€level€(Peng,€1996,€¢p18£„20).€€DescriptionsÐ à Ðof€punishments€and€rewards.€€Variations€at€the€provincial€level€(Peng€1991,€¢p46£„48).€Ìà  àImplementation:€1983,€the€peak€year€of€compulsion€(¢Hardeee£„¢Cleaveland£€and€Banister€1988,Ï¢p271£,€¢pp275£„6)Ìà  à1984,€Central€Committee€Document€[1984,€no.7]:€ð ðblocking€up€the€big€breach,€meanwhileÐ ` Ðopening€a€small€holeðð;€eliminate€coercion;€reduce€abortion;€encourage€local€implementation€(PengÐ ð@ Ð1996,€¢p24£„26).Ìà  à1984,€revision€of€provincial€regulations€to€broaden€the€categories€of€allowing€two€children;Ïif€the€first€child€is€a€girl,€€second€birth€is€allowed€with€spacing€in€rural€areas€in€a€number€of€provincesÏ(¢Zeng£€1989,€¢p334£).€€Peng€(1991,€¢p48£)€described€special€conditions€under€which€a€second€child€wasÏallowed.Ìà  àMajor€differences€in€policy€formation€and€implementation€between€rural€and€urban€areas€andÏacross€provinces€(various€references;€€Peng€1991).Ð ,`'* Ðà  à1988,€first€girl,€allow€second€birth€with€spacing€was€officially€extended€to€all€rural€areasÏ(¢Zeng£€1989).€€1989,€four€types€of€policies€in€rural€China:€(1)€Six€provinces€(Guangdong,€Hainan,Ï¢Yunan£,€¢Ningxia£,€¢Qinghai£,€and€¢Xinjiang£)€allow€a€second€child€a€few€years€afer€the€first.€€(2)ÏRestricting€one€child€per€couple€with€state€approval€in€high€population€density€areas€(Suburbs€ofÏBeijing,€Tianjin,€Shanghai,€and€¢Jiangsu£€and€Sichuan€province).€€(3)€In€other€18€provinces,€only„¼daughter„household€can€have€second€birth€with€a€few€years€of€spacing.€€(4)€Minorities€can€have€twoÏor€more€(¢Zeng£€1989;€Peng€1991,€¢p26£).€€€Ìà  àThe€òòMarriage€Law€of€1980óó,€which€took€effect€1€¢Junuary£€1981,€permitted€the€age€of€marriageÐ Ð  Ðto€be€20€for€females€and€22€for€males.€€These€ages€are€lower€than€òòlate€marriage€agesóó€imposed€in€theÐ ° Ðlate€¢1970s£€(see€Peng€1991,€¢p53£€and€¢Zeng£€1994,€¢p25£„28€for€some€discussions).€€ÌÌòòOther€Notables:óóÐ P  Ðà  àMinisters€of€the€State€Family€Planning€Commission:€¢Qian£€¢Xinzhong£€1979„83;€Wang€¢Wei£Ï1984„87;€and€Peng€¢Peiyun£€1988„now.€€Some€believed€that€Wang€¢Wei£€softened€the€control€policiesÏ(¢Hardeee£„¢Cleaveland£€and€Banister€1988,€¢p245£).€€Ìà  àMandatory€family€planning:€€Marriage€Law€of€1980€requires€that€€ð ðboth€husband€and€wifeÐ Ð  Ðshall€have€the€duty€to€practice€family€planningðð€and€the€1982€Constitution€states€that€ð ðboth€husbandÐ °"  Ðand€wife€have€the€duty€to€practice€family€planningðð€(¢Hardeee£„¢Cleaveland£€and€Banister€1988,€¢p272£).€Ð $à" Ðà  àÌò òIII.€Policy€Regimes€and€Demographic€Behavioró óÐ P( #& Ðà  àWe€argue€that€the€population€policies€in€the€¢1970s£€and€the€¢1980s£€represent€two€distinctiveÏregimes€that€may€have€profoundly€differential€impacts€on€shaping€Chinaððs€demographic€structure.€Ð ,`'* ÐThe€ð ðlater,€longer,€fewerðð€campaign€in€the€¢1970s£€was€largely€based€on€voluntary€participation€thatÐ ° Ðemphasized€all€means€of€family€planning€that€indirectly€reduce€population€growth.€€The€single„childÏpolicy€that€started€in€1980€placed€on€direct€controls€on€the€number€of€births.€€Under€the€one„childÏpolicy€regime,€the€government€relaxed€other€indirect€means€of€fertility€control.¢×ƒ×Ý ƒ #ÃÝòòÚ  Ú5Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×£€€€We€argue€thatÐ P   Ðdemographic€behavior€are€drastically€different€under€these€two€regimes.€Ìà  àDetailed€comparison€of€policy€implementations€under€the€two€regimes€and€the€likely€impactsÏon€demographic€trend.€€Our€focus€is:€are€major€demographic€patterns€expected€to€differ€across€¢1970s£Ïand€¢1980s£?€€Ìà  àòòFertility€(Number€of€births):óó€in€¢1980s£,€rewards€too€high€and€penalties€too€severe€to€violateÐ ° Ðthe€family€planning€regulations.€€Almost€all€urban€couples€had€one€child.€€In€rural€areas,€theÏmaximum€is€two.€€Policies€in€¢1970s£€were€softer,€though€should€contribute€to€reduce€fertility.€€ExpectÏdecline€in€births€in€¢1970s£,€but€reduction€more€dramatic€in€the€¢1980s£.Ìà  àòòChoice€of€measurementóó€is€important.€€Common€measure€is€¢TFR£,€which€refers€to€averageÐ 0€ Ðnumber€of€children€that€would€be€born€in€a€lifetime€to€women€subject€to€the€birth€rates€by€age€in€aÏgiven€period€(clarify€this€definition€and€doubt€check€our€calculations!!!).€€An€alternative€measure€isÏnumber€of€children€per€couple€for€year€specific€marriage€cohorts.€€This€more€closely€measures€theÏimplementation€of€policy.€€We€apply€both€measures€for€analyzing€fertility€change.€€Marginal€effectsÏversus€total€measures.€€We€compare€the€results€and€draw€conclusions.€€Ìà  àòòAge€at€marriage€and€first€birthóó:€€legal€marriage€ages€from€The€Marriage€Law€of€1950€are€notÐ p&À!$ Ðeffective;€and€the€ð ðlate€marriage€ageðð€in€the€¢1970s£€was€implemented.€With€the€deepening€of€ð ðwan,Ð ° Ðxi,€¢shao£ðð€campaign,€we€expect€that€marriage€age€to€increase€in€the€¢1970s£.€€€The€Marriage€Law€ofÐ à Ð1980€increased€marriage€age€in€the€1950€Law.€€But€with€the€implementation€of€one„child€policy,€theÏgovernment€has€loosened€controls€on€marriage€age€and€time€of€pregnancy,€etc.€€Expect€that€the€ageÏat€marriage€to€rise€in€¢1970s£,€but€decline€in€¢1980s£.€€Same€pattern€for€first€birth.Ìà  àòòBirth€intervalsóó:Ð `  Ðà  àòòContraceptive€use:óóÐ ð@  Ðà  àòòGender€composition:óó€attention€has€drawn€on€infanticide€as€a€consequence€of€implementingÐ Ð  Ðthe€one„child€policy;€rural„urban€differences;€temporary€policy€effects€versus€general€discriminationÏagainst€girls€in€rural€areas;€€changes€over€time?€€Discussions€on€gender€composition€at€birth.€ÏAssuming€the€same€gender€preference,€expect€more€discrimination€against€girls€because€the€chanceÏof€having€more€children€is€reduced.€€Most€severe€when€the€quantity€restriction€is€most€strict.Ìà  àòòInvestments€in€children:óó€fewer€children,€higher€quality.€€This€point€has€been€developed€inÐ 0€ Ðboth€economics€and€demography€literature€(Becker€1960;€€Becker€and€Lewis€;€€Blake€1981;€¢Behrman£Ï1987).€€Quantity€controls€may€force€families€to€devote€more€resources€on€each€child€andÏconsequently€we€expect€€families€to€raise€the€education€level€of€children€through€out€the€¢1970s£€andÏ¢1980s£€.€Ìà  àòòProvincial€differences€and€rural„urban€differences:óóÐ $à" Ðà  àIn€summary,€changes€in€policies€in€the€¢1970s£€and€¢1980s£€would€result€in:Ì(1)€Fewer€number€of€births€per€family€in€the€¢1980s£€and€continuous€decline€of€¢TFR£.€€Ì(2)€Increase€in€mean€age€at€marriage€in€the€¢1970s£€and€reduction€in€the€¢1980s£.Ì(3)€Increase€in€mean€age€of€first€births€in€the€¢1970s£€and€reduction€in€the€¢1980s£.Ð ,`'* Ð(4)€Expect€differences€in€gender€ratios€at€birth€across€rural€and€urban€areas;€gender€discriminationÏagainst€girls€more€severe€when€the€quantity€restrictions€are€more€stringent.Ì(5)€Education€level€of€children€rise€continuously€in€the€¢1970s£€and€the€¢1980s£.€Ì(6)€Contraceptive€use€between€marriage€and€first€birth€more€prevalent€in€the€¢1980s£.Ìò òÌIV.€Description€of€Dataó óÐ `  Ðà  àIn€1992€the€Household€Economy€and€Fertility€study€surveyed€a€cross„section€of€14,000Ïhouseholds€in€ten€geographic€areas.€This€survey€was€jointly€designed€and€implemented€byÏeconomists€from€the€United€Nation's€population€programs€and€IPS€at€CASS.€Based€on€per€capitaÏincome,€consumption€expenditure,€total€fertility€rates,€literacy€rates€and€other€criterions,€25€provincesÏwere€first€arranged€into€five€groups€with€five€provinces€in€each€group.€€The€researchers€thenÏrandomly€selected€two€provinces€in€each€group.€€Using€similar€methodology,€researchers€selectedÏ1,400€households€in€each€province,€yielding€500€households€from€cities,€300€from€nonagriculturalÏfamilies€from€townships,€300€from€developed€rural€counties€and€300€from€underdeveloped€counties.€Ï¢Tian£€et€al.€(1994)€reported€that€this€sample€was€representative€of€the€national€statistics.Ìà  àMore€descriptions€of€the€survey,€its€contents,€and€sample€characteristics.Ìà  àDefinitions€of€city,€town,€and€villages;€their€interactions€with€household€registration€types;Ïand€the€nature€of€the€sample.Ìà  àJustification€of€using€òòmarriage€cohortsóó€as€the€analytical€unit.€€Our€focus€is€to€document€theÐ p&À!$ Ðchanges€of€demographic€patterns€over€the€two€policy€regimes€in€the€¢1970s£€and€¢1980s£.€€Marriage€isÏa€central€analytical€unit€because€policies€first€affected€marriage€age€and€then€affected€theÏconsequently€behavior€of€contraceptive€use,€duration€of€marriage€to€firth€birth,€age€at€firth€marriage,Ð ,`'* Ðgender€of€children,€fertility€rates,€and€education€of€children.€€Policies€have€had€differential€impactsÏon€the€behavior€of€different€marriage€cohorts.€€Demographic€patterns€of€marriage€cohorts€reflectÏyear„specific€policy€changes.€€The€yearly€marriage€cohorts€will€be€our€basic€analytical€units.Ìà  àOur€focus€is€to€document€the€òòchanges€in€the€mean€levels€of€demographicsóó.€€The€sampleÐ P   Ðaverages€would€reflect€the€information€for€the€sampled€regions.€€However,€we€would€like€to€examineÏthe€yearly€changes,€provincial€variations,€and€rural„urban€differences€of€these€changingÏdemographics.€€Therefore,€we€should€analyze€the€demographic€means€through€òòregression€analysisóóÐ ð@  Ðallowing€for€the€above€distinctions.׃×Ý ƒ #ÃÝòòÚ  Ú6Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×Ð Ð  Ðà  àTable€1:€summary€of€sample€statistics.Ìà  àTable€2:€sample€distributions€of€the€cohorts.Ìà  àTable€3:€sample€distributions€in€the€provinces.Ìà  àIssues€of€sample€selection:€(1)€only€sampled€those€who€have€married€and€had€children,Ïalthough€this€may€not€be€a€serious€problem€because€China€has€òòuniversal€marriage€and€child€bearingóóÐ 0€ Ð(Tien€1983,€¢p107£;€¢Coale£€1984,€¢p42£„45).€€(2)€Over€sampling€of€those€women€who€had€children€earlyÏafter€their€marriage.€€This€bias€may€result€in€over€sampling€of€women€in€late€cohorts€who€marry€lateÏ(consequently€who€want€to€have€children€immediately€after€marriage),€who€have€shorter€intervalsÏbetween€marriage€and€pregnancy€(by€definition),€and€who€do€not€practice€contraception.€€ThisÏsampling€design€also€affects€the€computation€of€completed€fertility.€€In€rural€areas,€spacing€of€severalÏyears€is€required€for€having€a€second€child.€€Therefore,€the€observed€number€of€children€does€notÏrepresent€completed€family€fertility.€€€€€€€€Ð P( #& Ðò òÌV.€Changes€in€Demographic€Structureó óÐ à Ð5.1€FertilityÌòòà  à¢TFR£óó:€start€with€the€definition.€€Four€points€that€need€attention:€€(1)€from€previous€researchÐ P   Ðon€national€average€measures:€most€rapid€decline€occurred€in€the€¢1970s£.€€But€the€population€policiesÏwere€much€restrictive€in€the€later€years.€€This€is€a€point€that€need€attention.€€(2)€òò¢TFR£óó€is€a€measure€thatÐ `  Ðincludes€fertility€behavior€of€past€generations.€€€(3)€Itððs€important€to€know€how€number€of€childrenÏper€family€changed€over€time,€the€ð ðmarginal€effects.ðð€€(4)€A€shortcoming€of€using€national€òò¢TFR£óó€toÐ Ð  Ðreflect€trend:€left€out€differences€between€city,€county€town,€and€rural€villages,€and€across€provinces.€ÏÌà  àFindings€on€òò¢TFR£óó:€Declines€less€dramatic€comparing€with€standard€results.Ð pÀ ÐòòNumber€of€births€(NOB)€per€couple€by€marriage€cohortsóó.׃×Ý ƒ #ÃÝòòÚ  Ú7Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×Ð P  Ðà  àFindings:€these€results€provide€a€fuller€picture€than€òò¢TFR£óó€measures.€€Many€interesting€resultsÐ 0€ Ðhere.€€Major€differences€among€cities,€towns,€and€rural€families.€€But€in€all€regions,€see€continuousÏdecline€in€the€¢1970s£€and€the€¢1980s£.€€Ìà  àòòComplete€fertility€versus€incomplete€fertilityóó.€€Cite€3€years€as€commonly€implementedÐ Ð  Ðspacing.€€Since€three€children€are€not€allowed,€1987€marriage€cohorts€are€likely€to€have€completedÏtheir€child€bearing.€€€We€interpret€results€from€1987€marriage€cohorts.€Ìà  àShould€change€ways€of€reporting:€convert€to€average€number€of€children€per€family.Ìà  àMain€results:€(1)€In€cities,€towns,€and€villages,€the€reduction€in€the€average€number€ofÐ P( #& Ðchildren€per€family€between€1970„1987€are€1.143,€1.295,€and€1.252,€respectively.€€(2)€Speed€ofÏimplementation€vary€greatly:€city€fastest,€followed€by€towns€and€villages.€€Will€report€moreÏinteresting€results.€€€€Ìà  àCompare€the€¢TFR£€and€¢NOC£€results:€€òò¢TFR£óó€exaggerates€the€speed€of€fertility€decline€in€theÐ P   Т1970s£€because€it€gradually€drops€the€1950€cohorts€who€had€the€highest€fertility.€€NOB€measure€doesÏnot€suffer€from€this€problem.€€€€ÌÌ5.2€Marriage€and€ContraceptionÌà  àFindings€on€òòage€at€marriageóó:€city,€town,€and€village€differences;€€an€inversed€ð ðVðð€process,Ð ° Ðreflecting€the€responses€to€ð ðwan,€xi,€¢shao£ðð€policies€in€the€¢1970s£,€and€the€gradual€reboundingÐ à Ðresponses€in€the€¢1980s£.Ìà  àFindings€on€the€òòage€of€first€birthóó:€mirrors€the€results€for€marriage€age.€€Behaviors€are€veryÐ P  Ðsimilar€for€couples€in€cities€and€towns.Ìà  àòòDurationóó€from€marriage€to€first€birth:€prolonged€interval€most€evident€between€1970„77,€asÐ ` Ða€result€of€ð ðwan,€xi,€¢shao£ðð€policy.€€Duration€declines€in€the€¢1980s£,€but€not€significantly.€Ð ð@ Ðà  àFindings€on€òòcontraceptionóó€between€marriage€and€first€birth€by€marriage€cohorts:€significantÐ Ð  Ðcity,€town,€and€rural€differences.€€The€rate€of€practice€increases€in€the€¢1980s£€and€become€increasingÏimportant.€ÌÌ5.3€Gender€CompositionÌà  àòòSex€ratiosóó€at€birth€in€specific€years:€City€ratio€is€significantly€different€from€towns€and€ruralÐ 0*€%( Ðareas€where€there€are€evidence€of€sex€discrimination.€€54.1€%€of€surviving€children€in€towns€andÐ ,`'* Ðrural€areas€are€boys,€a€result€of€either€infanticide€of€girls€or€higher€mortality€rate€for€girls.€€On€theÏwhole,€no€evidence€of€infanticide€of€girls€in€response€to€the€changes€in€national€population€policies,Ïas€reported€by€media€sources.€€Although€1982€figure€is€suspect€because€the€boys€ratio€was€up€4€%Ïfrom€trend€with€close€to€significant€t„value.€1982€was€the€peak€year€of€compulsion€(¢Hardeee£„¼¢Cleaveland£€and€Banister€1988,€¢p271£,€¢pp275£„6).Ìà  àSuggest€to€add€in€tables€that€illustrate€gender€composition€of€different€size€families€(similarÏto€those€in€Arnold€and€Liu€1986).€ÌÌ5.4€SchoolingÌà  àCompleted€years€of€schooling€by€marriage€cohorts.Ìà  àDesired€years€of€schooling€by€marriage€cohorts.€€Ìà  àFindings:€consistent€increases€over€the€¢1970s£€and€¢1980s£.Ì5.5€Expected€Benefits€of€ChildrenÌà  àReport€tables€on€the€mean€of€variables.€Ìò òÌÌVI.€Concluding€Remarksó óÐ °"  Ðà  àPlot€a€set€of€graphs€that€report€the€most€important€regression€results€with€clearly€labeledÏpolicy€regimes€„€major€demographic€trends€in€the€¢1970s£€and€¢1980s£.€€Perhaps€need€to€report€two„yearÏaverages€to€reduce€the€effects€of€yearly€variances€and€to€smooth€the€trends€for€purpose€of€illustration.€Ìà  àInterpret€these€results€as€immediate€responses€to€changes€in€policy€regimes,€and€summarizeÏthe€paper.Ð ,`'* Ðà  àThe€shortcoming€of€the€paper:€have€not€discussed€the€role€of€other€¢socio£„economic€changesÏthat€may€impact€demographic€behavior.€€The€long€run€setting.€€Rapid€modernization:€factors€thatÏresult€in€delayed€marriages€and€child€bearing,€etc.€„€already€seen€early€signs€(Peng€1993,€¢p400£).€ÏLeave€for€future€research.€€€Ð  P   Ðà@ûû%ìàò òReferences:ó óˆÐ ° ÐÓÓArnold,€F.€and€Liu,€Z.€(1986).€ð ðSex€Preference€...ðð€€òò¢PDR£óó.Ð à ÐÌBanister,€J.€(1987).€€òòChinaððs€Changing€Populationóó.Ð pÀ ÐÌà0  àà ° àBecker,€Gary€(1960).€ð 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ÐÌPeng,€X.€Z.€(1989).€€òòChina€Quarterlyóó.Ð À! 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