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€§€ §£  €§º§Ö €§ð§ €§&§I €§_§ €§•§¹ €§Ï§ï €§§( €§>§^ €§u§˜ €§®§Î €§ä§ €§§> €§T§t €§Š§­ €§Ã§ã €§ù§ €§3§S €§i§‰ €§Ÿ§Ã €§Ù§ù €§§2 €§H§h €§~§¢ €§¸ §Ø  €§î §  €§$ §H  €§^ §~  €§” §·  €§Í §í  €§ §'  €§=§] €Ex)E´) €E)E?) €EU(Eu( €E‹'E¯' €EÅ&Eå& €Eû%E& €E5%ET% €Ek$E‹$ €E¡#EÄ# €EÚ"Eú" €E"E4" €EJ!Ej! €EºEÙ €EðE €E&EI €E_E €E•E¹ €EÏEï €EE( €E>E^ €EuE˜ €E®EÎ €EäE €EE> €ETEt €EŠE­ €EÃEã €EùE €E3ES €EiE‰ €EŸEà €EÙEù €EE2 €EHEh €E~E¢ €E¸ EØ  €Eî E  €E$ EH  €E^ E~  €E” E·  €EÍ Eí  €E E'  €E=E] €ßx)ß´) €ß)ß?) €ßU(ßu( €ß‹'߯' €ßÅ&ßå& €ßû%ß& €ß5%ßT% €ßk$ß‹$ €ß¡#ßÄ# €ßÚ"ßú" €ß"ß4" €ßJ!ßj! €ß€ ߣ  €ßºßÖ €ßðß €ß&ßI €ß_ß €ß•ß¹ €ßÏßï €ßß( €ß>ß^ €ßuߘ €ß®ßÎ €ßäß €ßß> €ßTßt €ßŠß­ €ßÃßã €ßùß €ß3ßS €ßi߉ €ßŸßà €ßÙßù €ßß2 €ßHßh €ß~ߢ €ß¸ ߨ  €ßî ß  €ß$ ßH  €ß^ ß~  €ß” ß·  €ßÍ ßí  €ß ß'  €ß=ß] €}x)}´) €})}?) €}U(}u( €}‹'}¯' €}Å&}å& €}û%}& €}5%}T% €}k$}‹$ €}¡#}Ä# €}Ú"}ú" €}"}4" €}J!}j! €}€ }£  €}º}Ù €}ð} €}&}I €}_} €}•}¹ €}Ï}ï €}}( €}>}^ €}u}˜ €}®}Î €}ä} €}}> €}T}t €}Š}­ €}Ã}ã €}ù} €}3}S €}i}‰ €}Ÿ}à €}Ù}ù €}}2 €}H}h €}~}¢ €}¸ }Ø  €}î }  €}$ }H  €}^ }~  €}” }·  €}Í }í  €} }'  €}=}] €y±)<±)(ÿÿ$òòÚ  ÚÚ  Úóó sÝ ƒJZï!ÝÑ@ÑÑ @ ÑÑT@RXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  Ý€€€€€òòÚ  Ú1Ú  ÚóóSome€famous€historical€famines€include€the€Russian€famine€of€1932„33,Ð ° Ðwhich€resulted€in€5€to€6€million€deaths,€the€1943€great€Bengal€famine€of€3Ïmillion€deaths,€the€1972„74€Ethiopian€famine€of€50€to€200€thousand€deaths,€theÏ1973€famine€in€the€Sahel€of€100€thousand€deaths€and€the€1974€Bangladesh€famineÏof€80€to€100€thousand€deaths.€€More€recent€famines€have€taken€place€in€Somalia,ÏEthiopia€and€other€developing€countries. Ý ƒJZï!ÝÑ@ÑÑ @ ÑÑT@RXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  Ý€€€€€òòÚ  Ú2Ú  ÚóóSee,€for€example,€Seaman€and€Holt€(1980),€Cutler€(1984)€and€BowbrickÐ ° Ð(1986). ¢Ý ƒJZï!ÝÑ@ÑÑ @ ÑÑT@RXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  Ý€€€€€òòÚ  Ú3Ú  ÚóóDue€to€data€limitations,€Sen€(1981)€used€national€per€capita€grainÐ ° Ðoutput€as€the€indictor€for€food€availability€in€the€study€of€Ethiopian€andÏBangladesh€famines.€€Presumably,€per€capita€food€supply€in€a€famine€region€isÏa€more€relevant€indicator.€€For€the€great€Bagel€famine€Sen€used€food€availabilityÏfigures€for€the€district,€a€more€local€indicator,€as€per€capita€availabilityÏmeasures.€€However,€Bowbrick€(1986)€questioned€the€reliability€of€the€productionÏfigures.€€ ªÝ ƒJZï!ÝÑ@ÑÑ @ ÑÑT@RXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  Ý€€€€€òòÚ  Ú4Ú  ÚóóIn€absence€of€a€market„clearing€equilibrium,€for€instance,€entitlementÐ ° Ðmay€not€be€well€defined.€€There€is€also€a€great€deal€of€vagueness€to€characterizeÏa€person's€possessions.€€See€Sen€(1981b)€for€additional€explanations. íÝ ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú5Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝAgricultural€taxes€were€used€by€the€Communists€as€early€as€1938€in€theÐ ° ÐShansi„Gansu„Ningxia€liberated€regions€(Perkins,€1966).€€The€rate€was€set€atÏ12€percent€of€the€"normal"€yield€in€the€early€1950s.€€The€rate€fell€to€6Ïpercent€in€1970€and€then€to€5€percent€in€1978€(Perkins€and€Yusuf,€1984).€€TheÏshare€of€grain€acquired€through€taxes€declined€over€time€in€total€grainÏprocurement.(©!2¼ó$¤¤Ý ƒJZï!ÝÑÑÑ  ÑÑTRXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  ÝÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú0Ú  Úóó ãÝ ƒJZï!ÝÑ@ÑÑ @ ÑÑT@RXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  Ý€€€€€òòÚ  Ú6Ú  ÚóóThe€demand€came€from€several€sources:€First,€the€urban€populationÐ ° Ðincreased€dramatically€from€57.65€million€in€1949,€to€71,63€million€in€1952,Ïand€to€99.49€million€in€1957.€€Second,€since€over€70€percent€of€China'sÏexports€had€been€agricultural€and€processed€agricultural€products€up€to€theÏmid„1970s,€the€country's€capacity€to€import€capital€goods€for€industrializationÏdepended€on€the€growth€of€agriculture.€€Third,€agriculture€was€the€main€sourceÏof€raw€material€for€many€industries,€such€as€textiles€and€food€processing€(LinÏ1990). ”Ý ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú7Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝFor€example,€in€1956€the€monthly€ration€of€grain€for€unusually€hardÐ ° Ðlaborers€ranged€between€22.5€kg€and€27.5€kg€with€national€average€of€25€kg,Ïfor€hard€laborers€ranged€between€17.5€kg€and€22€kg€with€national€average€ofÏ20€kg,€for€light€laborers€ranged€between€13€kg€and€17€kg€with€national€averageÏof€16€kg,€for€white€collar€employees€ranged€between€12€kg€and€14.5€kg€withÏnational€average€of€14€kg,€and€for€college€and€high€school€students€rangedÐ î> Æ Ðbetween€13€kg€and€16.5€kg€with€national€average€of€16€kg€(Chen€1982,€p.€206). ÆÝ ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú8Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝWalker€(1984)€provided€various€accounts€of€rural€opposition€to€theÐ ° ÐUnified€Purchase€and€Unified€Sale€schedule.€€Crimes€were€committed€against€theÏcoercive€acquisition€and€people€who€were€responsible€for€the€crimes€wereÏsentenced,€including€imprisonment€and€even€death€penalty.€€The€instabilityÏcaused€by€grain€procurement€caught€the€attention€of€Mao€Tse„tung€who€expressedÏconcerns€in€his€writings.€€Mao€(1967)€recorded:€"Old€women€blocked€the€roadÏand€would€not€allow€the€grain€to€be€taken€away€..."€and€"€...€At€the€time€youÏ(Minister€of€Food)€said€there€was€no€grain€problem€but€I€said€there€was." ¡Ý ƒJZï!ÝÑ@ÑÑ @ ÑÑT@RXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  Ý€€€€€òòÚ  Ú9Ú  ÚóóFor€instance,€the€formation€of€the€large„scale€agricultural€organizationsÐ ° Ðenhanced€the€power€of€rural€cadres€to€mobilize€large€amounts€of€grain.€€And,€theÏcadres€had€incentives€to€enforce€procurement€policies€to€achieve€their€ownÏpromotions.€As€noted€by€Perkins€and€Yusuf€(1984,€p.€4),€the€foremost€feature€ofÏChina's€rural€development€has€been€the€government's€capacity€to€implementÏvillage„level€programs€on€a€nationwide€basis€through€bureaucratic€and€PartyÏchannels. …Ý ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú10Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝSen€(1983)€made€an€interesting€contrast€between€India€and€China.€€HeÐ ° Ðobserved€that€China€was€more€successful€to€eliminate€malnutrition€for€theÏpopulation€while€India€had€better€records€in€avoiding€major€famines.€€SenÏattributed€these€observations€to€differences€in€institutions. OÝ ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú11Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝProjects€of€capital€formation€include€constructing€irrigation€systems,Ð ° Ðsuch€as€dams€and€reservoirs,€building€infrastructures,€or€the€alike.€ÏMechanization€was€also€used€as€a€rationale€for€increasing€the€size€of€aÏcollective. 2Ý ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú12Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝThe€principle€characteristics€of€the€GLF€may€be€summarized€by€policiesÐ ° Ðrelated€to€technology,€management€and€planning,€and€industries€and€ideology.€ÏSee€Riskin€(1987)€for€additional€descriptions. Ý ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú13Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝAs€shown€in€figure€2,€the€changes€in€population€trends€started€in€1958.Ð ° ÐHowever,€the€increase€in€death€rate€and€the€decline€in€birth€rate€were€likelyÏto€be€the€result€of€massive€mobilization€for€producing€steel€by€the€traditionalÏiron„casting€furnaces,€which€were€set€up€at€the€backyards€overall€China€in€1958Ïas€one€of€the€most€important€component€of€the€Great„Leap€Forward€Movement.€SinceÏthe€technique€was€extremely€labor„intensive,€people€did€not€have€time€or€were€notÏgiven€enough€attention€for€health€care€and€reproduction.€ ËÝ ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú14Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝHere€and€in€the€subsequent€analysis,€we€use€figures€between€1954„66.€Ð ° ÐThis€specific€period€is€taken€for€consideration€because€important€demographicÏstatistics,€such€as€death€rate,€are€missing€for€some€provinces€prior€to€1954.€ÏThe€period€ends€in€1966,€the€beginning€of€the€Cultural€Revolution€when€theÏnation€entered€into€a€distinct€historical€era. MÝ ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú15Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝOther€studies€indicated€similar€magnitude€for€the€urban€immigration.€Ð ° ÐAshton€et€al.€(1984)€recorded€that€net€inflow€of€urban€population€was€aboutÏ31€million€between€1958„60.€€Walker€(1984)€described€that,€between€the€end€ofÏ1957€and€the€end€of€1958,€urban€population€increased€by€at€least€13€million,Ïor€approximately€13€percent.€€Bernstein€(1984)€provided€similar€migrationÏnumbers€as€Ashton€et€al.€and€pointed€out€that€most€of€the€inflow€took€placeÏin€the€second€half€of€1958. mÝ ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú16Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝActions€taken€by€the€peasantry€was€found€in€Mao's€writings€(1967).€Ð ° ÐThey€hid€things€in€"secret€cellars,€...€posted€sentries.€€...€ate€turnipsÏduring€the€day€and€concealed€rice€at€night."€€See€Walker€(1984)€and€BernsteinÏ(1984)€for€additional€description. Ý ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú17Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝIn€a€recent€talk€in€Bangkok€given€by€one€of€the€authors,€a€senior€FAOÐ ° Ðofficial€would€not€believe€that€the€famine€actually€occurred€in€China.€In€1960Ïhe€travelled€for€a€couple€of€weeks€from€the€Northeast€to€the€South€of€ChinaÏand€did€not€observe€the€usual€signs€of€famine€that€he€observed€in€the€incidenceÏof€famine€in€other€countries.€However,€his€trips€were€restricted€to€cities€andÏnot€in€the€rural€areas. èÝ ƒJZï!ÝÑ@ÑÑ @ ÑÑT@RXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  Ý€€€€€òòÚ  Ú18Ú  ÚóóThe€exception€is€(5)Neimonggu€which€had€death€rate€below€(2)Tianjing.€Ð ° Ð(5)Neimonggu€is€a€special€province€because€a€high€percentage€of€its€populationÏwere€herdsmen€who€primarily€engaged€in€stock„raising€activities.€€This€provinceÏwas€relatively€isolated€from€the€rest€of€the€economy. YÝ ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú19Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝSee€Walker€(1984)€for€an€exhaustive€analysis€of€China's€grain€suppliesÐ ° Ðand€procurement€in€the€1950s€and€1960s€and€detailed€descriptions€about€theÏpolitical€struggle€between€the€provincial€and€central€government.€€The€generalÏsecretary€of€the€Guangdong€province,€who€effectively€resisted€the€centralÏprocurement€in€the€years€of€disasters,€was€purged€during€the€Cultural€Revolution.€ÏIn€other€provinces,€administrations€managed€to€export€.361€million€tons€of€grainÏfrom€Kansu,€.935€million€tons€from€Henan,€2.24€million€tons€from€Sichuan€and€.440Ïmillion€tons€from€Hunan€province€despite€of€severe€food€shortages€in€1959„60.€ÏThese€provinces€were€severely€hit€by€famine.€€As€early€as€the€1958„59Ïagricultural€year,€a€procurement€slogan€was€propagated€in€Sichuan:€"First€theÏcenter,€than€the€locality;€first€external€(commitments),€then€internalÏ(commitments)."€€The€province€organized€5€million€people€to€transport€grain€forÏexport€and€the€procurement€reached€the€highest€historical€level€of€2.595€millionÏtons.€€Because€of€this,€massive€famine€hit€the€province€earlier€than€elsewhere,Ïresulting€in€a€4.7€percent€death€rate€in€1959.€€The€obedience€of€the€provincialÏgovernment€was€also€responsible€for€the€highest€provincial€death€rate€of€2.94Ïpercent€in€1961. Ý ƒ0¼ó$ÝÓ  ÓÓÓ€€€€€òòÚ  Ú20Ú  ÚóóÝ  ÝChanges€in€grain€supply€can€affect€the€availability€of€net€energy,Ð ° Ðprotein€and€fat€in€a€standard€diet.€€See€Piazza€(1986)€for€conversion€of€foodÏto€nutrition€levels€which€took€into€account€the€factors€such€as€animal€feed,Ïagricultural€seed€and€grain€lost€in€processing€and€distribution.€€This€paperÐ ¢ò  Ðdoes€not€systematically€deal€with€the€efficiency€of€food€consumption€and€uses. tÑ  ÑÑ  ÑÑ\RÂ&Ð6\Ñ dAAAA'ÿÿÈÈÈÈdxd Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5(—2¹$££Ý ƒJZï!ÝÑÑÑ  ÑÑTRXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  Ý("ÿÿ$’’ò òFigure€Ú  ÚÚ  Úó óCDEBA<< cÿÿ)FAMINE.HPP ÖÝ ƒD¹#ÝÓ  ÓÝ  ÝÝ ƒEÿÿÝò òFigure€Ú  Ú1Ú  Úó óÝ  Ý:Birth€Rate€and€Death€Rate€in€China,€1949„1989Ð  ÐÌSource:€State€Statistical€Bureau,€1990,€p.€2.3|d(|Zï$¡¡ÑÑÑ  ÑÑTRXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ ƒJZï!ÝÑÑÑ  ÑÑTRXä3Ø'3Ø'3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)ÿ3Ø'TÑÓ  ÓÝ  ÝÑ  ÑÌÌÌÌÌÌÌÌÌÌà@Ö\JàFood€Availability,€Entitlements€and€the€Chinese€Famine€of€1959„1961ˆÌÌÌÌÌÌÌà@þ,JàJustin€Yifu€LinˆÌà@ŒJàPeking€University,€Hong€Kong€University€of€Science€and€Technology,ˆÌà@H Œ "Jàand€Australian€National€UniversityˆÌÌÌà@V\2JàandˆÌÌÌà@0L,JàDennis€T.€YangˆÌà@þ,JàDuke€UniversityˆÌà@º¼3Jà€ˆÌÌÌÌÌÌà@*</JàJuly€1995ˆÌÌÌà@nœ(JàòòCorrespondence€Addressóó:ˆÐ X$ ÐÌà@”¬-Jàò òJanuary„Juneó óˆÐ T¤& Ðà@þ,JàJustin€Yifu€LinˆÌà@H Œ "JàChina€Center€for€Economic€ResearchˆÌà@š¼+JàPeking€UniversityˆÌà@0L,JàBeijing€100871ˆÌà@òü1JàChinaˆÌÌà@b|-Jàò òJuly„Decemberó óˆÐ æ!6- Ðà@þ,JàJustin€Yifu€LinˆÌà@nœ(JàDepartment€of€EconomicsˆÌà@z ¼ #JàSchool€of€Business€and€ManagementˆÌà@ð L JàHong€Kong€University€of€Science€and€TechnologyˆÌà@<l'JàClear€Water€Bay,€KowloonˆÌà@*</JàHong€KongˆÌÌÌÌÌÌ_________________________Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌWe€would€like€to€thank€Mark€An,€Robert€Marshall,€Marjorie€McElroy,€MichaelÏMeurer,€Vladimir€Treml€and€workshop€participants€at€Duke€University€forÏhelpful€comments.ÌÐ  ô,D(> ÐÑ  Ñà@Ö\JàFood€Availability,€Entitlements€and€the€Chinese€Famine€of€1959„1961ˆÌÌÌà@\l/JàAbstractˆÌÓÓÌà° àThe€food€availability€decline€and€Sen's€entitlement€are€two€leadingÏhypotheses€for€the€causation€of€famine.€€Previous€research€based€on€case€studiesÏhas€given€independent€support€to€each€of€the€accounts.€€This€paper€analyses€theÏChinese€famine€of€1959„61€by€jointly€considering€entitlement€arrangement€andÏdeclines€in€food€availability€as€complementary€causes.€We€found€that€in€theÏChinese€famine€of€1959„61€both€the€food€availability€decline€and€entitlementÏarrangement€contributed€significantly€to€the€increase€of€death€rates€in€theÏfamine.€However,€the€differences€in€the€entitlement€arrangement€were€moreÏimportant€than€the€differences€in€food€availability€for€explaining€the€observedÏdifferences€in€death€rates€across€provinces.ÌÌÐ  Ø(E ÐÑ7€Ó“ôôd¦dÈ7ÑØØÓÓà@Ö\JàFood€Availability,€Entitlements€and€the€Chinese€Famine€of€1959„1961ˆÐ ° ÐÌÌòòÓÓI.€IntroductionóóÐ ¢ò ÐThe€problem€of€famines€and€food€shortages€has€received€much€attention€fromÏeconomists€because€they€have€continued€to€occur€despite€of€persistent€progressÏin€agricultural€production€technology.׃+×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú1Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€The€traditional€approach€to€famineÐ † Ö Ðanalysis,€which€may€be€dated€back€to€the€writings€of€Adam€Smith€and€Malthus,Ïproposes€that€famines€are€primarily€caused€by€a€sudden€food€availabilityÏdecline€(FAD).€€Wars€or€natural€calamities€may€effect€an€agriculturalÏproduction€collapse€in€a€particular€geographic€region€and€result€in€widespreadÏhunger€and€famine.€€This€supply„based€FAD€account€was€an€accepted€explanationÏfor€famines€before€the€influential€work€of€Sen€(1977,€1981a€and€b),€whoÏproposed€a€complementary€entitlement€approach.€€Sen€emphasizes€that€famine€isÏa€result€of€some€people€failing€to€acquire€enough€food€to€eat.€While€aÏshortage€in€food€output€per€head€can€be€a€cause€of€famine,€it€is€only€one€ofÏmany€possible€causes.€€In€his€studies€of€several€well€known€historicalÏfamines,€Sen€found€that€famine€often€occurred€in€absence€of€per€capita€foodÏoutput€decline.€€Famines€were€either€resulted€from€a€sudden€collapse€in€theÏendowments€of€certain€portion€of€the€population€or€from€dramatic€changes€inÏrelative€prices€which€cause€certain€portion€of€the€population€fail€to€acquireÏenough€food.€Ìà° àWhile€the€entitlement€approach€has€been€accepted€by€many€famine€analysts,€Ïproponents€of€the€FAD€account€have€also€offered€criticism.׃,t×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú2Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€Instead€of€examiningÐ ’ â) Ðfood€availability€at€aggregate€levels€as€Sen,€the€opponents€emphasized€localÏsupply€conditions.€€They€argue€that€crop€failures€due€to€natural€calamities€oftenÏresult€in€high€food€prices€because€of€the€supply€shortage,€speculative€behavior,Ð v$Æ/ Ðincreased€demand€to€deal€with€uncertainty€and€sales€of€possessions€to€exchangeÏfor€food.€€Ultimately€the€poor€and€those€who€are€negatively€affected€by€badÏweathers€become€famine€victims€because€of€reduced€purchasing€power.€€Since€cropÏfailures€initiate€the€chain€effects,€the€shortage€in€food€supply€is€viewed€as€aÏnecessary€condition€of€famine.Ìà° àDespite€of€the€clarity€of€views€at€the€theoretical€level,€the€distinctionÏbetween€the€two€approaches€has€not€yet€been€reflected€clearly€in€empiricalÏanalysis.€€Although€Sen€has€amply€demonstrated€that€famine€can€occur€without€aÏreduction€in€per€capita€food€supply,€his€measures€of€availability€are€eitherÏdefined€at€national€or€highly€aggregated€regional€levels,€which€may€not€directlyÏrefute€the€propositions€of€FAD€opponents€who€emphasized€local€conditions.׃-×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú3Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€AÐ ¨ø  Ðformal€test€of€the€entitlement€hypothesis€was€further€obstructed€by€other€dataÏlimitations,€such€as€the€lack€of€records€on€personal€properties€and€detailedÏmarket€commodity€prices.€€More€importantly,€previous€research€has€not€consideredÏfood€supply€and€entitlement€as€complementary€factors€to€cause€famine.€€As€aÏresult,€we€still€do€not€know€the€relative€importance€of€the€two€hypotheses€inÏexplaining€famine€deaths.Ìà° àIn€this€paper€we€analyze€the€Chinese€famine€of€1959„61,€where€the€drop€inÏfood€availability€and€entitlement€arrangements€were€both€important€factors.€ÏUnder€the€centrally€planned€regime,€urban€residents€were€given€the€legallyÏprotected€rights€to€food€through€an€effective€ration€system.€€To€the€contraryÏcompulsory€grain€quotas€were€imposed€on€the€farm€people.€€During€the€Great€LeapÏForward€in€1959„61,€the€Chinese€agricultural€production€collapsed€because€of€aÏsudden€institutional€change,€natural€calamities€and€a€series€of€policy€mistakes.€ÏThe€grain€output€dropped€by€15€percent€in€1959€and€reached€only€about€70€percentÏof€the€1958€level€in€1960€and€1961.€€A€careful€study€of€the€newly€released€dataÏreveals€that€this€crisis€resulted€in€widespread€famine€and€caused€about€30Ð h&¸!2 Ðmillion€excess€deaths€(Ashton€et€al.€1984).€€To€analyze€this€worst€catastropheÏin€human€history,€€we€introduce€Sen's€entitlement€concept€to€the€centrallyÏplanned€system.€€We€formulate€a€framework€which€is€amenable€to€empirical€test€andÏjointly€considers€per€capital€food€supply€and€the€right€to€food€as€determinantsÏof€famine.Ìà° àA€panel€data€set€for€28€Chinese€provinces€for€the€period€1954„1966€are€usedÏfor€the€empirical€analysis.€We€use€the€percentage€of€rural€population€and€perÏcapita€grain€output€in€a€province€as€proxies€for€the€entitlement€arrangement€andÏfood€availability€in€that€province€and€assess€respectively€their€contributionsÏto€the€observed€cross„province€differences€in€death€rate.€We€find€that€in€normalÏyears€the€cross„province€differences€in€both€variables€did€not€result€in€cross„¼province€differences€in€death€rate.€However,€in€the€famine€of€1959„61€bothÏvariables€contributed€significantly€to€the€observed€cross„province€differencesÏin€death€rates.€This€result€gives€supports€to€both€the€FAD€hypothesis€and€theÏentitlement€hypothesis€as€reasons€for€famine.€However,€the€empirical€evidenceÏalso€shows€that€differences€in€the€entitlement€arrangement€are€more€importantÏthan€the€differences€in€food€availability€for€explaining€the€observed€differencesÏin€death€rates€across€provinces€in€the€famine.€To€our€knowledge,€this€paper€isÏthe€first€attempt€to€test€the€entitlement€hypothesis€rigorously€and€also€theÏfirst€attempt€to€test€the€entitlement€hypothesis€and€FAD€hypothesisÏsimultaneously.€ÓÓÌÌÌòòÓÓII.€China's€Food€Procurement€and€EntitlementóóÐ ’ â* ÐIn€the€entitlement€approach,€Sen€(1981a,€1981b)€proposes€that€the€acquirementÏproblem,€rather€than€per€capita€food€supply,€is€central€to€questions€of€hungerÏand€starvation€in€the€modern€world.€€Consider€a€person's€endowment€vector€òòò òxó óóó,Ð v$Æ/ Ðwhich€may€include€the€possession€of€land,€labor€services,€health€conditions€andÏthe€ownership€of€other€properties.€€The€person€may€produce€his€own€food€based€onÏinitial€endowment,€or€he€may€exchange€possessions€in€the€market€for€a€consumptionÏbundle€which€includes€food.€€This€person€will€have€to€starve€if€he€fails€toÏobtain€enough€food.€€This€may€occur€either€through€a€fall€in€the€endowment€vectorÏò òòòxóóó ó€(direct€entitlement€failure),€or€through€an€unfavorable€shift€in€the€terms€ofÐ R,¢'; Ðexchanging€properties€for€food€(trade€entitlement€failure).€€Consequently€FAD€isÏnot€a€necessary€condition€for€famine.€€Towards€testing€his€propositions,€SenÏrecognizes€that€there€can€be€ambiguities€in€the€specification€of€entitlement€andÏthis€problem€can€be€compounded€by€data€limitations.׃.×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú4Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€Instead€of€conductingÐ ”ä Ðstatistical€analysis,€Sen€relied€heavily€on€the€indices€of€rice„exchange€rate,Ïthe€price€ratios€of€other€products€or€services€to€rice,€as€major€indicators€ofÏchanging€entitlement€relations.€€He€found€that€sharp€declines€in€the€food„¼exchange€rates€for€people€in€selected€occupations€explained€much€of€the€famines.Ìà° àIn€contrast€to€the€market€environment€where€Sen€laid€out€his€entitlementÏhypothesis€and€applications,€China€had€a€planned€economic€structure€where€theÏacquisition€and€distribution€of€food€were€directly€controlled€by€the€centralÏgovernment.€€Rural€people€had€to€deliver€compulsory€quotas€to€procurementÏagencies€at€prices€set€by€the€government.€Food€rationing€system€existed€in€citiesÏwhere€urban€residents€had€protected€legal€rights€for€certain€amount€of€grainÏconsumption.€€In€this€planned€setting€food€availability€and€entitlement€are€stillÏimportant€factors.€€But€how€they€result€in€starvation€differ€from€a€marketÏeconomy.Ìà° àAfter€the€founding€of€the€People's€Republic€in€1949,€an€in„kindÏagricultural€tax€was€the€main€vehicle€that€the€state€acquired€grain€from€ruralÏareas.׃/‚×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú5Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€In€1953€the€central€government€brought€all€grain€procurement€andÐ T¤$ Ðdistribution€under€its€direct€control€with€a€system€of€Unified€Procurement€andÏUnified€Sale€for€grain€and€oil„bearing€crops€as€a€way€to€suppress€the€procurementÏprices.€Interprovincial€grain€trade€by€private€traders€was€virtually€eliminated.ÏAccompanied€the€Unified€Procurement€and€Unified€Sale€was€a€rigid€householdÏregistration€system,€which€deprived€rural€population's€rights€to€move€to€urbanÐ Ð# . Ðareas€and€put€the€rural€to€urban€migration€under€the€government's€tight€control.ÏThe€aim€of€these€schemes€was€to€extract€as€much€as€possible€agricultural€surplusÏfor€facilitating€the€heavy„industry„oriented€development€strategy€which€hadÏresulted€in€an€increasing€demand€for€grain€and€other€agricultural€products€forÏurban€food€consumption€and€exports.׃1×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú6Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€Under€Unified€Procurement€and€Unified€SaleÐ à 0 Ðthe€central€government€set€the€target€for€purchase€of€grain€nationwide€before€aÏproduction€season€began.€The€target€depended€on€the€planned€urban€consumptionÏneeds,€urban€reserves,€industrial€materials€and€international€trade.€The€targetÏfiltered€down€through€provinces€and€lower€levels€of€government€until€they€reachedÏthe€basic€production€units€and€became€mandatory€quotas.€The€quotas€specified€theÏquantity€of€compulsory€deliveries€as€well€as€their€prices€set€by€the€state.€WhenÏquotas€were€fulfilled,€peasants€were€free€to€sell€the€remaining€surplus€to€theirÏfellow€villagers,€the€state€procurement€departments,€or€a€state„regulated€grainÏmarket.€In€practice,€however,€because€the€state€had€procured€to€the€maximumÏpossible€extent,€the€farmers€were€left€with€little€surplus€to€sell€(Walker,Ï1984).Ìà° àAfter€harvests,€grain€procurement€agencies€in€each€localities€collected€theÏquotas€and€delivered€the€grain€to€the€state.€The€state€then€distributed€the€grainÏto€the€urban€population€in€each€province€at€subsidized€prices.€To€control€theÏurban€food€demand€and€to€facilitate€the€distribution€of€food€to€the€targetedÏgroup,€food€ration€coupons€were€introduced€in€1954€(Walker,€1984).€In€August€1955Ïthe€government€established€a€more€formal€system€and€set€up€the€ration€standardsÏaccording€to€age,€employment€and€other€demographic€characteristics.׃2À×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú7Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€InÐ 8!ˆ+ Ðsubsequent€years€the€ration€norms€were€adjusted€and€the€scope€of€rationing€wasÏextended€to€other€agricultural€products,€including€soy€beans,€coarse€grains,Ïcotton€cloth,€edible€oil€and€pork.Ìà° àThe€rationed€urban€consumptions€were€matched€closely€with€the€ruralÏcompulsory€quotas.€The€former€represented€protected€legal€rights€for€cityÏresidents€and€the€latter€represented€coercive€burdens€on€the€rural€people.€€UnderÏthe€procurement€and€rationing€system,€there€was€serious€conflict€between€theÏgovernment€and€the€peasantry.€€Since€the€government€gave€priorities€to€industrialÏdevelopment,€it€pursued€a€heavy€procurement€policy€to€feed€the€expending€cityÏpopulation,€to€provide€raw€materials,€to€accumulate€city€grain€stocks€and€toÏexport€grain€for€foreign€exchange.€€However,€more€grain€acquisition€implied€aÏbigger€extraction€from€agriculture€which€unavoidably€created€strong€opposition.׃36×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú8Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ׀РôD ÐDespite€conflict,€the€government€was€always€successful€in€acquiring€grain€forÏcities.€€It€relied€on€effective€administrative€and€political€methods.׃4.×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú9Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×Ð ŒÜ Ðà° àA€production€unit's€mandatory€quota,€specified€before€the€production€seasonÏbegan,€in€general,€depended€on€the€production€unit's€normal€outputs€in€theÏprevious€years€and€its€own€consumption€needs.€In€normal€years,€the€farm€householdÏwould€have€been€left€enough€food€for€meeting€subsistence€needs.€If€the€declineÏin€grain€output€was€a€local€phenomenon,€the€national€or€provincial€governmentÏmight€also€reduce€the€quota€obligations€or€even€deliver€some€grain€relief€to€theÏfarm€households€in€the€areas€affected€by€the€bad€harvest.€€However,€if€there€wasÐ  ð& Ða€severe€reduction€in€food€supply€nationwide,€rural€people€would€bear€much€of€theÏconsequences€and€a€famine€was€likely€to€occur€in€rural€areas€because€theÏgovernment's€predominant€concern€was€urban€food€supply.׃5×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú10Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€Given€the€aboveÐ H˜ Ðinstitutional€arrangements€in€China,€FAD€and€entitlement€may€be€the€fundamentalÏcauses€of€China's€famine€during€a€severe€supply€shock.Ìà° àThe€above€discussions€gave€useful€hints€for€identifying€proxies€and€unitsÏof€observations€for€testing€the€entitlement€hypothesis€and€FAD€hypothesis€asÏexplanations€for€famine€in€the€Chinese€context.€First,€the€entitlement€wasÏrelated€to€a€household's€legal€status€as€urban€household€or€rural€household.€TheÏurban€households€had€entitlement€to€a€given€amount€of€grain€guaranteed€by€theÏstate,€whereas€the€rural€households€only€had€the€right€to€the€residual€afterÏfulfilling€the€quota€obligation.€Second,€the€relative€price€of€grain€to€otherÏcommodities€had€limited€power€in€explaining€starvation€in€China€because€theÏdistribution€of€grain€in€urban€areas€was€carried€out€by€in„kind€rationing€and€theÏgrain€market€in€rural€areas€during€a€famine€was€too€thin€to€be€meaningful.€Third,Ïbecause€the€interprovincial€grain€trade€by€private€traders€was€prohibited€and€theÏcentral€government€would€not€have€the€capacity€to€deliver€relief€to€rural€areasÏduring€the€period€of€a€sharp€decline€in€grain€output€nationwide,€the€subsistenceÏof€farmers€in€a€province€during€that€period€depended€on€the€food€production€inÏthat€province.€Ìà° àThe€above€specific€institutional€arrangements€in€China€provide€us€aÏconvenient€way€for€testing€the€validity€and€relative€importance€of€FAD€andÏentitlement€as€explanations€for€famine€in€China.€The€per€capita€grain€output€inÏa€province€can€be€used€as€the€proxy€for€the€food€availability€in€that€province.ÏMeanwhile,€the€proportion€of€rural€population€in€a€province€can€be€used€as€aÏproxy€for€the€entitlement€arrangement€in€that€province.€This€variable€representsÏthe€proportion€of€population€in€that€province€which€did€not€have€the€legallyÏprotected€rights€to€food.€We€need€not€worry€about€how€to€measure€a€household'sÐ ´'#4 Ðproperty€entitlement€or€exchange€entitlement€as€these€two€variables€were€notÏimportant€determinants€of€the€rights€to€food€in€the€specific€socialist€settingÏin€China.€€Ìà° àThe€hypotheses€we€would€like€to€test€can€be€summarized€as€follows:€ÓÓÌÌÌà0° àIn€a€famine€in€China,€the€death€rate€in€a€province€is€positively€relatedÏto€the€proportion€of€rural€population€in€that€province€(entitlementÏhypothesis)€and€negatively€related€to€the€grain€output€per€capita€in€thatÏprovince€(FAD€hypothesis).Ð (#(# ÐÌÌÓÓà° àIn€1959„61€China€experienced€a€serious€famine.€In€the€next€section,€we€willÏdocument€grain€production€declines,€issues€of€procurement€and€the€resultedÏfamine.€In€section€IV,€we€will€conduct€a€statistical€assessment€on€the€relativeÏeffects€of€food€availability€and€entitlement€on€the€observed€deaths€in€this€humanÏdisaster.ÓÓÌÌÌòòÓÓIII.€Collectivization€and€Demographic€Crisis:€1959„1961óóÐ ŒÜ ÐChina's€agricultural€collectivization€started€in€1952.€€The€size€of€productionÏorganization€increased€from€household€farming€to€mutual€aid€teams,€to€elementaryÏcooperatives€and€then€to€advanced€cooperatives,€which€consisted€of€about€150Ïhouseholds€and€were€widely€adopted€in€1957.€€The€agricultural€output€increasedÏcontinuously€in€this€period€with€an€average€annual€growth€rate€of€4.6€percent.€ÏEncouraged€by€the€success€the€Communist€party€decided€to€adopt€a€bolder€approachÏto€mobilize€surplus€labors€to€increase€capital€formation.׃6×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú11Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€In€1958€large€scaleÐ  ð& Ðcommunes€were€formed€as€part€of€a€nation€wide€Great€Leap€Forward€(GLF)Ïmovement.׃7(×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú12Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€Contrary€to€the€expectation,€however,€the€Chinese€agricultureÐ 8!ˆ* Ðproduction€plugged€dramatically€for€three€successive€years€and€it€resulted€inÏwidespread€famine.€As€a€consequence,€the€death€rate€per€thousand€people€increasedÏsubstantially€in€1959„61€whereas€the€crude€birth€rate€per€thousand€peopleÐ %l 0 Ðdeclined€substantially€in€the€same€period€(see€figure€1).׃8×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú13Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ׀Р° Ðà° àEconomists€have€attempted€to€explain€the€causes€of€the€sudden€reduction€inÏagricultural€output.€€Conventional€hypotheses€include€three€successive€years€ofÏbad€weather,€bad€policies€and€bad€management€in€the€communes,€and€incentiveÏproblems€due€to€the€unwieldy€large€size€of€the€communes€(Eckstein€1966,€ChinnÏ1980,€Ashton€et€al.€1984,€and€Perkins€and€Yusuf€1984).€€Lin€(1990)€formulated€aÏgame€theory€approach€which€proposed€the€main€cause€of€the€agricultural€collapseÏas€the€deprivation€of€the€peasants'€right€to€withdraw€from€the€collective.€€ThisÏswitch€in€the€form€of€organization€changed€the€incentive€structure€of€theÏpeasants€and€consequently€resulted€in€the€agricultural€productivity€collapse.€ÏIn€this€paper,€we€do€not€investigate€the€determinants€of€the€sudden€drop€inÏoutput,€but€we€focus€on€the€consequences€of€the€supply€shock.€€More€specifically,Ïwe€analyze€the€relative€importance€of€food€availability€and€the€legal€entitlementÏto€food€in€causing€the€subsequent€famine.Ìà° àStatistical€figures€in€Table€1€reveal€that€there€were€sharp€reductions€inÏgrain€availability€for€the€period€1959„61.׃9×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú14Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€Prior€to€the€collapse€the€totalÐ $t Ðgrain€output€continued€to€increase,€reaching€a€record€high€in€1958€with€200Ïmillion€tons.€€In€1959€total€supply€suddenly€dropped€by€15€percent€and€theÏfollowing€two€years€were€even€worse,€reaching€only€about€70€percent€of€the€1958Ïlevel€in€1960€and€1961.€€There€was€slow€recovery€from€the€slump€in€the€subsequentÏyears€and€the€1958€grain€level€was€finally€regained€in€1966.Ìà° àDuring€the€food€crisis€grain€availability€per€head€declined€more€severelyÏbecause€in€the€first€two€years€the€outflow€of€grain€in€China's€trade€reachedÏhistorical€heights.€€As€shown€in€Table€1,€net€grain€export€increased€from€2.7Ð „"Ô+ Ðmillion€tons€in€1958€to€4.2€million€tons€in€1959.€€This€net€export€combined€withÏthe€decline€in€output€resulted€in€a€17€per€cent€and€a€further€13€percentÏreduction€in€per€capita€food€supply€in€two€consecutive€years.€€Pressured€by€theÏfood€emergencies,€China€in€1961€imported€4.5€million€tons€of€grain€which€helpedÏto€reduce€food€deficiency.€€Since€then€China€became€a€grain€importer€in€theÏ1960s.Ìà° àWhile€the€massive€food€shortage€was€a€plausible€cause€of€the€subsequentÏfamine,€another€important€factor€was€the€food€entitlement€to€the€farm€population.€ÏAs€shown€in€Table€1,€despite€of€the€sharp€decline€in€total€grain€supply,€theÏtotal€procurement€reached€the€highest€level€of€64.12€million€tons€whichÏdrastically€raised€the€quota„output€ratio€from€25.9€percent€in€1958€to€37.7Ïpercent€in€1959.€€The€quota„output€ratio€remained€at€32.4€percent€in€1960€despiteÏof€the€further€reduction€in€grain€output.€€As€a€result,€the€excessive€procurementÏseverely€reduced€the€food€supply€entitled€to€rural€people.Ìà° àThe€large€quantity€of€grain€acquisition€in€1959„60€were€primarily€due€toÏseveral€reasons.€€First,€the€newly€launched€industrial€GLF€increased€the€demandÏfor€grain€not€only€as€raw€materials€and€sources€of€export€but€also€forÏconsumption€in€cities.€Riskin€(1987)€documented€that€the€employment€in€stateÏindustries€was€tripled€from€7.8€million€in€1957€to€23.16€million€in€1958,€withÏa€net€inflow€of€15.68€million€agricultural€laborers.׃:×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú15Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€Consequently€the€stateÐ T¤$ Ðhad€to€raise€compulsory€quota.€In€the€winter€of€1958„59,€however,€urban€grainÏsupplies€began€to€fall€short€of€demand.€To€guarantee€the€success€of€GLF,€ChairmanÏMao€made€an€important€speech€in€the€spring€of€1959€and€described€the€nation€asÏ"one€chessboard",€a€policy€which€reaffirmed€the€central€planning€of€grain€andÏgave€a€high€priority€of€city€grain€supplies€over€rural€localities.€€This€policyÏwas€rigorously€implemented€in€1959€(Walker€1984).€A€second€possible€reason€forÏheavy€procurement€was€the€deception€from€a€bumper€harvest€of€1958€which€made€theÐ h&¸!2 Ðcentral€government€believe€that€China€had€solved€its€"grain€problem."€€TheÏgovernment€simply€increased€procurement€to€claim€its€own€share€of€the€harvest.Ìà° àNevertheless,€a€careful€examination€of€evidence€favors€the€firstÏexplanation€that€the€central€government€harshly€squeezed€the€peasantry€on€behalfÏof€urban€residents.€€The€evidence€does€not€fit€in€with€the€explanation€that€theÏexcessive€deprivation€of€grain€was€caused€by€misjudgment€of€the€state.€€FierceÏprocurement€campaigns€were€conducted€by€the€government€in€1959€and€in€the€sameÏtime€government€realized€that€peasants€employed€all€methods€of€actions€to€preventÏthe€state€from€taking€away€their€grain.׃;×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú16Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€€The€strong€local€resistance€wouldÐ `  Ðquickly€correct€any€government€deception€of€a€production€miracle,€but€the€stateÏcontinued€to€take€coercive€actions.€€The€state€utilized€effective€politicalÏstrategies€to€induce€the€enthusiasm€of€rural€cadres€to€submit€grain€and€punishedÏthose€who€resisted€orders.€€The€formation€of€large„scale€people's€communesÏprovided€opportunities€to€the€cadres€to€mobilize€large€amounts€of€grainÏ(Bernstein€1984).€The€result€of€the€procurement€campaign€was€astonishing:€€inÏ1959€the€state€managed€to€increase€the€grain€collection€by€about€24€percent€whenÏthe€grain€output€plugged€by€15€percent.Ìà° àAccompanied€the€sharp€reduction€in€food€supply€and€excessive€procurementÏwas€massive€famine€in€China€for€three€consecutive€years€1959„61.€€However,€thisÏfamine€was€not€known€to€academic€circle€outside€China€until€the€release€ofÏimportant€demographic€data€by€the€Chinese€government€in€the€early€1980s.׃<(×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú17Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€In€aÐ  ð& Ðcareful€study€of€the€population€statistics€by€interpolating€between€pre„€and€postÏfamine€mortality€levels,€Ashton€et€al.€(1984)€concluded€that€"the€number€ofÏexcess€deaths€during€the€crisis€amounts€to€about€17.3€million€deaths€over€the€ageÏof€10€and€12.2€million€deaths€under€age€10,€giving€a€total€of€almost€30€millionÐ Ð# . Ðexcess€deaths."€€Measured€in€number€of€deaths€this€disaster€is,€undoubtedly,€theÏworst€famine€in€the€history€of€the€world.Ìà° àSummary€statistics€for€the€period€1954„66€on€the€Chinese€population,€deathÏrate€and€birth€rate,€including€separate€accounts€for€rural€and€urban€areas,€areÏpresented€in€Table€2.€€Largely€an€agrarian€economy,€the€share€of€rural€populationÏwas€above€81€percent€in€the€entire€period€despite€of€a€declining€trend.€€TheÏdeath€and€birth€rates€figures€clearly€demonstrate€a€major€demographic€catastropheÏin€1959„61.€€The€national€death€rate€increased€from€1.198€percent€in€1958€toÏ1.459€percent€in€1959.€€Then€it€jumped€to€2.543€percent€in€1961.€€From€the€cityÏand€country€figures€we€see€that€much€of€the€high€national€death€rate€could€beÏtraced€to€rural€areas€where€there€was€an€astonishing€2.858€percent€death€rate€inÏ1960.€€In€the€famine€period€city€death€rates€were€above€normal€standard€but€wereÏmuch€lower€than€rural€rates.€€The€opposite€patterns€are€found€in€the€birthÏstatistics€where€the€national€rate€dropped€considerably€in€the€years€of€crisis.€ÏAgain€rural€population€was€more€severely€affected€with€the€lowest€birth€rate€ofÏ1.699€percent€occurred€in€1961,€which€was€about€one€half€of€the€birth€rate€inÏ1957.€€Reduced€birth€also€seriously€affected€the€wellbeing€of€the€population.€ÏBut€since€they€do€not€directly€represent€loss€of€lives,€our€analysis€shallÏconcentrate€on€death€rates.Ìà° àTable€3€provides€more€detailed€death€rates€between€1954„66€at€theÏprovincial€level.€€Among€the€existing€30€provinces€and€municipalities,€HainanÏprovince€and€Tibet€autonomous€region€are€not€included€in€the€table€because€theÏformer€is€a€newly€established€province€and€the€latter€did€not€have€official€deathÏrate€records€for€the€period€under€consideration.€€The€figures€reveal€variationsÏof€death€rates€during€the€crisis.€€In€the€worst€famine€year€1960,€the€lowestÏdeath€rates€are€found€in€the€three€municipalities,€(1)Beijing,€(2)Tianjing€andÏ(9)Shanghai,€which€were€the€most€important€political€and€industrial€centers€inÏChina.׃=×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú18Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€There€are€also€noticeable€regional€variations€in€death€rates:€€the€northÐ ´'#4 Ðand€north„east€provinces€generally€suffered€less€in€death€tolls€in€the€famine.Ìà° àAt€this€point€we€note€a€few€idiosyncratic€factors€which€may€causeÏvariations€in€provincial€death€rates€but€will€not€be€scrutinized€in€the€laterÏstatistical€analysis.€€First,€the€political€strength€of€provincial€government€toÏresist€the€central€administration€directly€determined€the€volume€of€local€grainÏextraction€and€consequently€affected€the€severity€of€famines.€€For€instance,Ï(19)Guangdong€and€(7)Jilin€only€had€mild€increases€in€excess€deaths€because€theseÏtwo€provinces€had€been€successful€in€reducing€their€grain€export€burdens.€€To€theÏcontrary€provinces,€which€were€cooperative€or€obedient€to€the€state,€such€asÏ(25)Gansu,€(16)Henan,€(21)Sichuan€and€(28)Hunan,€all€had€high€death€rates.€ÏPersonalities€and€political€strategies€of€provincial€leaders€in€weighing€localÏwelfare€and€central€orders€played€a€direct€role€in€affecting€the€death€rates.׃>×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú19Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ׀РôD ÐSecond,€inter„provincial€grain€transfers€to€disasters€regions€or€to€regions€withÏa€concentration€on€industrial€materials,€such€as€cotton€and€forestry,€were€alsoÏimportant€to€understand€the€variations€in€mortality€rates.€€However,€theseÏtransfers€were€often€done€on€a€very€short„run€basis€and€are€not€reflected€inÏrecorded€data.€€This€limitation€prevents€further€investigation€along€thisÏdirection.€€Third,€the€nationwide€lavish€consumption€of€grain€occurred€in€the€endÏof€1958€and€the€early€1959€may€partly€explain€interprovincial€differences.€ÏDeluded€by€the€good€harvest€in€1958,€commune€kitchens€supplied€grain€to€villagersÏwithout€cost€and€caused€enormous€waste€(Johnson€1990).€€Since€over€consumptionÏoccurred€at€differential€levels€across€provinces,€their€effects€on€death€ratesÐ ì<) Ðin€1959€and€1960€were€also€different.ÌÌòòIV.€Empirical€AnalysisóóÐ H˜ ÐA€panel€data€of€28€Chinese€provinces€for€the€period€1954„66€are€used€forÏempirical€analysis.€€These€data€were€collected€by€the€Chinese€Statistical€BureauÏand€were€published€in€òòQuanguo€Gesheng€Zizhiqu€Zhixiashi€Lishi€Tongji€ZiliaoÐ , | ÐHuibian,€1949„1989óó€(A€Compilation€of€Historical€Statistical€Data€of€Provinces,Ð x È  ÐAutonomous€Regions,€and€Municipalities)€and€various€volumes€of€the€ChineseÏStatistical€Yearbook.€Recent€demographic€studies€on€China€have€utilized€theseÏdata€and€stressed€the€consistency€of€the€information€with€other€data€sourcesÏ(Banister€1984,€Coale€1984,€and€Ashton€et€al.€1984).Ìà° àThe€rationale€for€analyzing€provincial€death€rates€is€discussed€in€sectionÏII.€€We€choose€this€observation€unit€also€because€data€at€the€provincial€levelÏin€China€is€the€most€complete€and€readily€available.€€The€State€StatisticalÏBureau€has€released€voluminous€province„level€data€to€the€public€since€the€earlyÏ1980s.€€We€choose€1954€as€the€starting€year€and€1966€as€the€ending€year€forÏempirical€analysis€because,€as€shown€in€figure€1,€there€was€a€significant€declineÏin€death€rate€prior€to€1954,€probably€due€to€the€transition€to€social€stabilityÏfrom€the€previous€civil€wars€and€other€social€destructions,€and€1966€marked€theÏstart€of€cultural€revolution,€another€period€of€social€chaos€in€China.ÓÓÌÌÌÓÓòòEmpirical€Hypotheses€and€SpecificationóóÐ F–% ÐWe€consider€entitlement€and€grain€availability€as€complementary€causes€of€famineÏand€assess€their€relative€importance.€€The€dependent€variable€for€analysis€is€theÏprovincial€death€rate€in€1954„1966.€€The€principle€€explanatory€variables€are€theÏproportion€of€rural€population€in€a€province,€a€proxy€for€entitlementÏarrangement,€and€the€per€capita€grain€output€in€a€province,€a€proxy€for€foodÏavailability.€As€explained€in€section€II,€we€do€not€include€property€possessionsÏand€relative€prices€between€food€and€other€commodities€as€explanatory€variables.ÏThis€approach€differs€from€Sen's€analysis€in€a€market€setting€where€propertiesÏand€relative€prices€were€the€basic€ingredients€of€analyzing€famine.Ìà° àThe€basic€estimating€equation€is:ÓÓÐ D,”'7 ЇÌà° àððòòitóó€=€ððòò0óó€+€ððòò1óóEòòitóó€+€ððòò2óóD.Eòòitóó€+€ððòò3óóAòòitóó€+€ððòò4óóD.Aòòitóó€+€ò òððó óòò5ò òóóYó óòòtóó€+€ò òððó óòò6ò òóóPó óòòióó€+€ð ðòòitóó€à€˜!¨!Vts€fà(1)€ˆÐ V¦ ÐÌÌÓÓwhere€i€indexes€the€province,€t€indexes€the€year,€ððòòitóó€is€the€death€rate,€Eòòitóó€isÐ X¨ Ðthe€percentage€of€rural€population,€D€is€a€dummy€variable€for€disaster€yearsÏ(i.e.,€D€=€1€for€1959,€1960,€and€1961,€and€D=0€for€other€years),€Aòòitóó€is€theÐ  X Ðper€capita€grain€output,€ò òYó óòòtóó€and€ò òPó óòòióó€are€vectors€of€year€and€provincial€dummies,Ð T ¤  Ðand€ð ðòòitóó€is€a€random€disturbance€term.€The€interaction€terms€D.Eòòitóó€and€D.AòòitóóÐ °   Ðallow€entitlement€and€FDA€to€have€different€effects€on€the€observed€death€rateÏat€normal€years€and€disaster€years.€In€(1)€ððs€are€parameters€to€be€estimated.Ð `°  Ðà° àThe€main€hypotheses€to€be€tested€pertain€to€the€relationship€betweenÏprovincial€death€rates€and€its€two€potential€causes,€entitlement€(Eòòitóó)€and€foodÐ `  Ðavailability€(Aòòitóó).€€In€normal€years€with€normal€food€production€nationwide,€weÐ \¬ Ðwould€expect€that€the€government€allocated€sufficient€food€supply€to€urbanÏpopulation€and€left€or€deliver€enough€food€to€rural€households.€Consequently€theÏEòòitóó€and€Aòòitóó€would€not€have€significant€effect€on€the€observed€provincial€deathÐ @ Ðrates,€that€is,€ððòò1óó€and€ððòò3óó€are€expected€not€to€be€significantly€different€fromÐ ŒÜ Ðzero.€€During€the€disaster€years€with€severe€grain€shortages€nationwide,€however,Ïthe€government's€predominant€concern€was€urban€food€supply.€The€higher€theÏpercentage€of€rural€population€within€a€province€means€that€less€people€haveÏprotected€rights€to€food.€€As€such€we€expect€a€higher€percentage€of€ruralÏpopulation€in€a€province€would€result€in€a€higher€death€rate€in€that€provinceÏ(that€is,€ððòò2óó>0).€Similarly,€given€the€compulsory€grain€quota€in€a€province€andÐ l ¼) Ðthe€government€would€not€have€the€ability€to€deliver€relief€to€rural€areas€duringÏthe€years€with€severe€grain€shortages€nationwide,€the€food€available€for€ruralÏpopulation€in€a€province€would€depend€on€the€food€output€in€that€province.€€A€lowÏper€capita€food€supply€in€a€province€may€reduce€the€availability€of€nutrientsÏunder€the€subsistence€level€and€result€in€hunger€and€deaths€to€the€ruralÏpopulation.׃?×Ý ƒ*ÿÿÝòòÚ  Ú20Ú  ÚóóÝ  Ý×  ×€Therefore,€the€observed€death€rates€in€a€province€in€the€disasterÐ L(œ#5 Ðyears€are€expected€to€be€a€negative€function€of€Aòòitóó€(that€is,€ððòò4óó€<€0).Ð ° Ѐà àThe€fixed„effect€specification€in€(1)€assumes€that€characteristics€uniqueÐ d Ðto€individual€provinces€and€years€can€be€captured€in€differences€in€the€constantÏterms,€causing€shifts€in€provincial€death€rates.€€For€instance,€the€quality€ofÏimmunity€services€and€health€care€continued€to€improve€during€the€period€ofÏconsideration,€which€may€result€in€a€continued€decline€in€death€rates.€€TheÏinsertion€of€Yòòtóó€may€take€into€account€this€and€other€time€varying€effects.€Ð  à  ÐSimilarly,€the€provincial€dummy€Pòòióó€may€pick€up€regional€effects€on€death€rates,Ð Ü ,  Ðsuch€as€the€behavior€of€provincial€leaders€towards€the€central€government,€theÏdifferent€degrees€of€food€waste€in€commune€kitchens,€local€diet€habits,€andÏprovincial€climate,€which€may€require€different€levels€of€subsistence€energy.ÏDespite€of€these€reasons€in€favor€of€a€fixed€effect€model,€we€do€not€pre„¼eliminate€the€feasibility€of€a€random€effect€model.€€We€will€performÏspecification€tests€to€determine€the€adequacy€of€alternative€empirical€functions.Ìà° àThe€basic€specification€in€(1)€will€be€extended€in€three€ways.€€First,€weÏwill€take€into€account€the€effect€of€grain€carryovers€from€the€previous€period.€ÏThe€issue€of€storage€is€important€because€it€adds€directly€to€the€current€grainÏoutput€to€give€the€total€available€food€for€consumption.€€Unfortunately,€however,Ïthere€are€no€data€in€China€on€the€stock€position€of€grain.€€To€overcome€this€dataÏdeficiency,€we€use€two„year€moving€averages€of€per€capita€grain€output€as€theÏalternative€availability€measure.€€Ìà° àThe€second€extension€considers€the€possible€non„linear€effect€of€foodÏavailability€on€death€rates€by€adding€quadratic€terms€of€Aòòitóó€to€the€basicÐ P! ) Ðspecification.€€We€expect€a€convex€relationship€between€Aòòitóó€and€ððòòitóó€in€both€normalÐ œ"ì+ Ðand€famine€periods:€€the€coefficients€for€the€linear€terms€are€negative€andÏrelatively€large€and€the€coefficients€for€the€quadratic€terms€are€positive€andÏrelatively€small.€€This€relationship€implies€that€increases€in€food€availabilityÏreduce€famine€deaths€at€a€decreasing€rate.Ìà° àThe€third€extension€allows€the€interaction€of€entitlement€and€availabilityÏmeasures€with€individual€year€dummies€in€the€famine€period.€€Previous€analysisÐ |*Ì%6 Ðhas€revealed€that€the€size€reduction€in€grain€output,€the€directions€ofÏinternational€trade€and€the€national€death€rates€within€the€famine€periodÏexhibited€noticeable€changes.€€Additional€time€interactions€facilitate€anÏexamination€of€within€period€variations.€€This€allows€for€a€richer€understandingÏof€the€actual€situations.Ìà° àIt€should€be€noted€that€this€study€does€not€systematically€analyze€theÏeffect€of€epidemics€on€mortality€rates.€€Famine€related€disease,€such€as€cholera,Ïmalaria,€fever,€dysentery€and€diarrhea,€may€cause€additional€deaths.€€Sen€(1981a)Ïdocumented€that€disease€related€mortality€usually€persists€into€the€yearsÏsubsequent€to€the€famine.€€In€China,€famine€related€epidemics€may€not€be€anÏimportant€cause€of€excess€deaths.€€Table€3€provides€the€evidence€that€mortalityÏrates€returned€to€the€normal€level€in€1962,€the€year€immediately€after€theÏcrisis.€€In€addition,€we€did€not€find€any€documentation€on€famine€epidemics€inÏChina€in€the€existing€literature.€€Based€on€these€information,€we€do€not€considerÏepidemics€as€a€major€determinant€of€famine€deaths.ÓÓÌÌÌòòÓÓEstimation€ResultsóóÐ Ê ÐPer€capita€grain€output€and€its€two„year€moving€averages€are€used€as€alternative€Ïavailability€measures.€€Applying€one€measure€at€a€time,€we€fit€a€set€of€threeÏregressions€which€include€the€basic€specification,€a€formulation€with€quadraticÏterms€of€grain€output€and€one€with€entitlement€and€availability€measuresÏinteracting€with€each€individual€famine€year.€€Provincial€and€time€dummies€areÏalso€included€in€each€regression.€€In€all€specifications€the€statistics€fromÏHausman€test€do€not€reject€the€null€hypothesis€that€the€fixed€effect€model€isÏconsistent€and€efficient,€confirming€our€prior€judgement.€€The€F„values€in€allÏregressions€reject€the€possibility€that€the€specified€variables€do€notÏsignificantly€explain€variations€in€provincial€death€rates.€€Another€result€isÏthat€the€estimated€parameters€are€almost€identical€for€using€either€per€capitaÏgrain€output€or€its€two„year€moving€average€as€the€availability€measure.€ÏHowever,€the€adjusted€Ròò2óó€is€consistently€higher€by€about€1€percentage€point€ifÐ ¬)ü$7 Ðusing€the€moving€averages.€€Based€on€these€information,€we€first€report€theÏbaseline€regressions€of€the€two€availability€variables.€€Then,€to€avoidÐ D,”'; Ðrepetition,€we€only€report€the€two€variant€regressions€with€moving€average€foodÏsupplies.€€Ìà° àColumn€(1)€and€(2)€in€Table€4€report€the€two€basic€regression€results€whichÏgive€support€to€the€main€hypothesis€that€both€entitlement€and€food€availabilityÏare€important€causes€of€famine€in€the€disaster€years.€€The€estimated€coefficientÏ(ððòò1óó)€for€the€percentage€of€rural€population€(E)€is€not€significantly€differentÐ , |  Ðfrom€zero,€indicating€that€in€normal€years€food€entitlement€does€notÏsignificantly€affect€provincial€death€rates.€€This€result€is€consistent€with€theÏconjecture€that€Chinese€government€left€sufficient€food€to€the€rural€populationÏunder€normal€supply€conditions.€€When€there€is€a€negative€supply€shock,€however,Ïentitlement€arrangement€becomes€an€important€explanation€for€famine€deaths.€€TheÏpositive€and€highly€significant€coefficient€(ððòò2óó)€for€the€interaction€between€EòòitóóÐ  \ Ðand€disaster„year€dummy€D€implies€that€the€higher€the€percentage€of€ruralÏpopulation€leads€to€higher€provincial€death€rates.€€This€result€confirms€our€Ïexpectation€because,€contrary€to€city€residents,€rural€people€do€not€haveÏprotected€rights€to€food.€€Under€the€adverse€conditions,€they€suffered€more€ofÏthe€negative€consequences.Ìà° àRegression€(1)€and€(2)€also€reveal€that€the€coefficients€for€per€capitaÏfood€availability€(ððòò3óó)€are€not€statistically€different€from€zero.€€These€resultsÐ 8ˆ" Ðconfirm€the€hypothesis€that,€in€normal€years,€changes€in€food€supplies€do€notÏsignificantly€affect€death€rates.€€However,€variations€in€food€supply€haveÏnoticeable€effects€on€mortality€in€the€famine€period.€€The€negative€and€highlyÏsignificant€coefficient€(ððòò4óó)€for€the€interaction€between€per€capita€foodÐ €!Ð* Ðavailability€and€the€famine€period€implies€that€increases€in€grain€availabilityÏin€a€province€reduces€famine€deaths€in€that€province.€€This€result€also€supportsÏthe€theoretical€conjecture.Ìà° àThe€relative€importance€of€food€availability€and€entitlement€as€famineÏcauses€lies€in€their€power€to€explain€variations€in€provincial€death€rates.€ÏPartial€correlation€coefficients€are€good€measures€because€they€indicateÏadditional€variations€explained€by€specific€variables€after€controlling€for€otherÏindependent€variables€in€a€multiple€regression.€€Using€information€provided€inÐ ø+H'9 Ðcolumn€(2)€of€table€4,€the€partial€coefficient€of€determination€for€theÏentitlement€effect€in€the€famine€period€can€be€calculated€using€the€conventionalÏformula€ròò2óóòòEóó=tòò2óóòò2óó/(tòò2óóòò2óó+d.f.),€where€tòò2óó€is€the€t„value€of€ððòò2óó€and€d.f.€is€the€degreesÐ H˜ Ðof€freedom.€€Simple€calculation€gives€ròò2óóòòEóó=tòò2óóòò4óó/(tòò2óóòò4óó+d.f.)=.073,€which€implies€thatÐ ¬ü Ðthe€entitlement€interaction€with€famine€explains€an€additional€7.3€percent€ofÏvariations€in€provincial€deaths.€€The€partial€correlation€coefficient€for€foodÏavailability€in€the€famine€period€is€ròò2óóòòAóó=.018,€which€explains€1.8€percent€ofÐ  à  Ðadditional€variations.€€These€evidence€indicates€that€differences€in€theÏentitlement€arrangement€were€more€important€than€the€differences€in€foodÏavailability€for€explaining€the€observed€differences€in€death€rates€acrossÏprovinces.Ìà° àColumn€(3)€of€Table€4€reports€estimation€results€with€quadratic€terms€ofÏgrain€output€moving€averages.€€Although€the€coefficients€of€the€availabilityÏvariables€do€not€have€high€statistical€significance,€their€magnitude€and€signsÏare€expected.€€The€results€indicate€a€convex€relationship€for€both€normal€andÏfamine€periods:€€increases€in€food€availability€per€head€reduce€death€rates€atÏa€decreasing€rate.€€It€is€interesting€to€note€that€the€magnitude€of€the€effectÏis€larger€in€the€famine€period.€€This€is€a€plausible€physiological€relationshipÏwhich€reveals€higher€values€of€food€under€scarcity.Ìà° àThe€result€of€interacting€the€entitlement€and€availability€variables€withÏindividual€famine€year€dummies€are€provided€in€column€(4)€of€Table€4.€€ConsistentÏwith€previous€results,€the€estimated€coefficients€for€E€and€A€in€normal€years€areÏnot€significantly€different€from€zero.€€The€coefficients€for€entitlementÏinteractions€are€all€positive€and€that€for€availability€interactions€are€allÏnegative,€supporting€the€proposed€hypotheses.€€The€estimation€also€reveals€thatÏthe€coefficients€for€1960€are€relatively€large€and€highly€significant.€€TheÏcoefficients€for€1959€and€1961€are€small€and€statistically€less€significant.€ÏWhat€have€caused€these€within€period€variations?Ì€à àSeveral€factors€may€contribute€to€the€revealed€differences.€€First,€grainÐ )h$5 Ðoutput€in€China€suddenly€dropped€by€15€percent€in€1959.€€However,€theÏavailability€situation€in€that€year€was€relatively€better€than€in€1960,€when€theÐ °+'9 Ðoutput€plunged€again€by€another€15€percent€that€year.€€The€availability€situationÏin€1961€gradually€recovered€from€1960€due€to€several€factors:€€grain€outputÏincreased€by€4€million€tons,€€the€net€export€was€reduced€by€about€7.2€millionÏtons,€and€the€national€population€decreased€by€about€3.48€millions.€€At€theÏnational€level,€these€changes€effected€a€8.5€percent€increase€in€per€capita€grainÏavailability€in€1961.€€These€considerations€help€to€understand€the€results€thatÏavailability€and€entitlement€have€their€most€significant€effects€in€1960.Ìà° àA€second€set€of€factors€that€may€explain€the€observed€yearly€variations€areÏthe€efficiency€of€food€consumption€and€government€adjustment€policies.€€After€theÏexperience€of€massive€starvation€in€1960,€people€may€adapt€to€the€severeÏsituations€by€forming€more€efficient€consumption€habit,€by€improving€storageÏfacilities,€and€by€discovering€efficient€substitutes€for€grain.€€These€activitiesÏmay€help€to€reduce€hunger€and€famine€deaths.€€Government€adjustment€policies€mayÏalso€help€to€achieve€the€same€end.€€Total€procurement€was€dramatically€reducedÏin€1961€(Table€2).€€Also€in€that€year,€10€million€urbanites€were€sent€to€theÏcountryside€to€release€the€pressure€of€urban€food€demand€and€to€increase€laborÏinputs€for€agricultural€production€(Bernstein€1984).€€The€implications€of€allÏthese€adaptive€activities€are€consistent€with€the€statistical€findings€thatÏentitlement€and€availability€effects€are€stronger€in€1960.€€The€variousÏadjustments€made€in€1961€resulted€in€less€starvation€and€reduced€the€importanceÏof€the€two€factors€as€determinants€of€excess€deaths.ÓÓÌÌÌòòÓÓV.€Concluding€RemarksóóÐ ’ â* ÐThe€food€availability€decline€and€Sen's€entitlement€are€two€leading€hypothesesÏfor€the€causation€of€famine.€€Previous€research€based€on€case€studies€has€givenÏindependent€support€to€each€of€the€accounts.€€In€this€paper€we€have€analyzed€theÏChinese€famine€of€1959„61€by€considering€availability€and€entitlement€asÏcomplementary€causes.€€In€the€Chinese€centrally€planned€system,€the€problems€ofÏfood€entitlement€originated€from€the€biased€policies€in€favor€of€urban€residents,Ïwho€were€given€the€legal€right€to€food€through€a€ration€system.€The€peasantry€asÏfood€producers€were€burdened€by€coercive€quota€and€only€entitled€to€the€residualÏfood€supply.€€We€choose€province€as€the€basic€analytical€unit€not€only€becauseÐ >,Ž'; Ðof€the€constraint€of€data€availability€but€because€each€province€had€a€portionÏof€the€population€guaranteed€with€food€and€it€had€obligations€to€meet€aÏprocurement€target€set€by€the€central€government.€€àÈÐ?àStatistical€analysis€showsÐ H˜ Ðthat€during€the€severe€supply€shocks€in€1959„1961,€both€per€capita€grain€outputÏ(an€availability€proxy)€and€percentage€of€rural€population€in€a€province€(anÏentitlement€proxy)€are€important€determinants€of€the€observed€death€rates€in€thatÏprovince.€A€larger€reductions€in€per€capita€grain€supply€caused€more€death€tollsÏand€a€larger€urban€population€resulted€in€less€famine€victims€in€a€province.€ÏMoreover,€provincial€death€rates€explained€by€entitlement€variations€is€about€4Ïtimes€as€large€as€the€death€rates€explained€by€availability€variations.€€ThisÏresult€indicates€that€institutional€based€factors€were€the€principle€cause€of€theÏChinese€famine.Ìà° 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ÐCalifornia:€ICS€Press€(1990).ÌÌLin,€Justin€Yifu.€"Collectivization€and€China's€Agricultural€Crisis€in€1959„¼61."€€òòJournal€of€Political€Economyóó,€98,€No.6€(1990).Ð Ø( ÐÌPerkins,€Dwight€H..€òòMarket€Control€and€Planning€in€Communist€Chinaóó.€€HarvardÐ $t ÐEconomic€Studies,€Vol.78,€Cambridge,€MA:€€Harvard€University€Press€(1966).ÌÌ______€and€Shahid€Yusuf.€€òòRural€Development€in€Chinaóó.€Baltimore€and€London:€Ð f! ÐThe€John's€Hopkins€University€Press€(1985).ÌÌMao,€Tse„tung.€€òòLong€Live€Mao€Tse„tung's€Thoughtóó.€€Chinese€Red€GuardÐ X$ ÐPublication€(Taiwan€reprints,€1967).ÌÌMalthus,€T.€R..€òòEssay€on€the€principle€of€Population€as€It€Affects€the€FutureÐ úJ' ÐImprovement€of€Societyóó€(1798).Ð  ð( ÐÌòò€€€€€€óó.€òòAn€Investigation€of€the€Cause€of€the€Present€High€Price€of€ProvisionsóóÐ ì<* Ð(1800).ÌÌMinistry€of€Agriculture,€Planing€Bureau,€òòNongye€Jingji€Ziliao,€1949„1983óóÐ Þ!.- Ð(Economic€Data€of€Agriculture,€1949„1983),€Beijing:€Ministry€of€Agriculture,Ï1984.ÌÌPiazza,€Alan.€€òòFood€Consumption€and€Nutritional€Status€in€the€PRC.óó€€Boulder,Ð v$Æ1 ÐColorado:€€Westview€Press€(1986).€ÌÌRiskin,€Carl.€€òòChina's€Political€Economy:€the€Quest€for€Development€SinceÐ h&¸!4 Ð1949óó.€€Oxford€University€Press€(1987).Ð '^"5 ÐÌSeaman,€J.€and€J.€Holt.€"Markets€and€Famines€in€the€Third€World."€€òòDisastersóóÐ Z(ª#7 Ð4,€no.2€(1980):€286„293.ÌÌSen,€Amartya€K.€€"Starvation€and€Exchange€Entitlements:€A€General€Approach€andÏIts€Application€to€the€Great€Bengal€Famine."€€òòCambridge€Journal€of€Economicsóó,Ð ò*B&; Ðno.1€(1977):€33„59.ÌÐ >,Ž'= Ðòò€€€€€€óó.€€òòPoverty€and€Famineóó.€Oxford,€U.K.:€Clarendon€Press€(1981a).Ð ° ÐÌññ„„„„„„ññ.€€"Ingredients€of€Famine€Analysis:€Availability€and€Entitlements."€ÏòòQuarterly€Journal€of€Economicsóó€(August€1981b):€433„464.Ð ¢ò ÐÌÌ______.€€"Development:€Which€Way€Now?"€€òòEconomic€Journalóó,€93€(1983).Ð ”ä ÐÌSicular,€Terry.€€"Grain€Pricing:€€A€Key€Link€in€Chinese€Economic€Policy."€€òòModernÐ à 0 ÐChinaóó€14,€no.4€(1988):€451„486.Ð † Ö  ÐÌSmith,€Adam.€òòThe€Wealth€of€Nationsóó.€€Everyman€(1910,€1977).Ð Ò "  ÐÌState€Statistical€Bureau,€€òòQuanguo€Gesheng€Zizhiqu€Zhixiashi€Lishi€Tongji€ZiliaoÐ  n  ÐHuibian,€1949„1989óó€(A€Compilation€of€Historical€Statistical€Data€of€Provinces,Ð Ä   ÐAutonomous€Regions,€and€Municipalities),€Beijing:€China€Statistical€Press,€1990.ÌÌWalker,€Kenneth€R..€€òòFood€Grain€Procurement€and€Consumption€in€China.óó€New€York:Ð ¶  ÐCambridge€University€Press€(1984).ÌÐ  R  Ðà@Ö\abilàTable€1.€Grain€Output,€Procurement€and€International€Trade:€1959„61ˆÌÌòò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ üL ÐÌ€€€€€€€€€€Output€€€€€€€Quota€€€€€Quota/€€€€€Export„€€€€Per€Capita€€€Ì€Year€€€€(million€€€€(million€€€€Output€€€€€Import€€€€€€€Grain€€€€€€Ì€€€€€€€€€€€tons)€€€€€€€tons)€€€€€€€(%)€€€€€€(m€tons)€€€(kg/year)€€€ÌÌòò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ à 0 ÐÌ€1954€€€€€169.52€€€€€€50.89€€€€€€30.02€€€€€€€€1.7€€€€€€€€278.5€€€€€€Ì€1955€€€€€183.74€€€€€€47.54€€€€€€25.87€€€€€€€€2.1€€€€€€€€295.5€€€€€€Ì€1956€€€€€192.75€€€€€€40.22€€€€€€20.87€€€€€€€€2.5€€€€€€€€302.8€€€€€€Ì€1957€€€€€195.05€€€€€€45.97€€€€€€23.57€€€€€€€€1.9€€€€€€€€298.7€€€€€€Ì€1958€€€€€200.00€€€€€€51.83€€€€€€25.92€€€€€€€€2.7€€€€€€€€299.0€€€€€€Ì€Ì€1959€€€€€170.00€€€€€€64.12€€€€€€37.71€€€€€€€€4.2€€€€€€€€246.7€€€€€€Ì€1960€€€€€143.50€€€€€€46.54€€€€€€32.43€€€€€€€€2.7€€€€€€€€212.7€€€€€€Ì€1961€€€€€147.50€€€€€€36.55€€€€€€24.78€€€€€€€„4.5€€€€€€€€230.8€€€€€€Ì€Ì€1962€€€€€160.00€€€€€€32.42€€€€€€20.26€€€€€€€„3.9€€€€€€€€243.6€€€€€€Ì€1963€€€€€170.00€€€€€€36.99€€€€€€21.76€€€€€€€„4.5€€€€€€€€252.3€€€€€€Ì€1964€€€€€187.50€€€€€€40.14€€€€€€21.41€€€€€€€„4.7€€€€€€€€272.6€€€€€€Ì€1965€€€€€194.53€€€€€€39.22€€€€€€20.16€€€€€€€„4.0€€€€€€€€273.7€€€€€€Ì€1966€€€€€214.00€€€€€€41.42€€€€€€19.35€€€€€€€„3.6€€€€€€€€291.9€€€€€€ÌÌòò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ ŒÜ ÐÌSource:€State€Statistical€Bureau,€€òòQuanguo€Gesheng€Zizhiqu€Zhixiashi€Lishi€TongjiÐ Ø( ÐZiliao€Huibian,€1949„1989óó€(A€Compilation€of€Historical€Statistical€Data€ofÐ ~Î ÐProvinces,€Autonomous€Regions,€and€Municipalities),€Beijing:€China€StatisticalÏPress,€1990;€p.€12,€p.€26.€Ministry€of€Agriculture,€Planing€Bureau,€òòNongye€JingjiÐ Ê ÐZiliao,€1949„1983óó€(Economic€Data€of€Agriculture,€1949„ññÐ pÀ  Ðññ1983),€Beijing:€MinistryÐ pÀ  Ðof€Agriculture,€1984,€p.€434.ÌÌÐ  b²# Ðà@’ ü abilàTable€2.€Summary€Statistics€of€Population,€Death€RateˆÌà@nœ(abilàand€Birth€Rate,€1954„66ˆÌÌÌòò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ H˜ ÐÌ€€€€€€€€€€€€€Population€€€€€€€€€€€€€Death€Rate€€€€€€€€€€€€€Birth€Rate€€€€€Ì€€€€€€€€òò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ : Š Ѐ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌYear€€€€Nation€€City€€Country€€Nation€€€City€€Country€€€Nation€€City€€€CountryÌ€€€€€€(million)€€(%)€€€€(%)€€€€€(.1%)€€€(.1%)€€€(.1%)€€€€(.1%)€€(.1%)€€€(.1%)€€Ìòò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ Ò "  ÐÌÌ1954€€€€602.66€€€13.7€€€86.3€€€13.18€€€€8.07€€€13.71€€€€37.97€€€42.45€€€37.51Ì1955€€€€614.65€€€13.5€€€86.5€€€12.28€€€€9.30€€€12.60€€€€32.60€€€40.67€€€31.74Ì1956€€€€628.28€€€14.6€€€85.4€€€11.40€€€€7.43€€€11.84€€€€31.90€€€37.87€€€31.24Ì1957€€€€646.53€€€15.4€€€84.6€€€10.80€€€€8.47€€€11.07€€€€34.03€€€44.48€€€32.81Ì1958€€€€659.94€€€16.2€€€83.8€€€11.98€€€€9.22€€€12.50€€€€29.22€€€33.55€€€28.41ÌÌ1959€€€€672.07€€€18.4€€€81.6€€€14.59€€€10.92€€€14.61€€€€24.78€€€29.43€€€23.78Ì1960€€€€662.07€€€19.7€€€80.3€€€25.43€€€13.77€€€28.58€€€€20.86€€€28.03€€€19.35Ì1961€€€€658.59€€€19.3€€€80.7€€€14.24€€€11.39€€€14.58€€€€18.02€€€21.63€€€16.99ÌÌ1962€€€€672.95€€€17.3€€€82.7€€€10.02€€€€8.28€€€10.32€€€€37.07€€€35.46€€€37.27Ì1963€€€€691.72€€€16.8€€€83.2€€€10.04€€€€7.13€€€10.49€€€€43.37€€€44.50€€€43.19Ì1964€€€€704.99€€€18.4€€€81.6€€€11.50€€€€7.27€€€12.17€€€€39.14€€€32.17€€€40.27Ì1965€€€€725.38€€€18.0€€€82.0€€€€9.50€€€€5.69€€€10.06€€€€37.88€€€26.59€€€39.53Ì1966€€€€745.42€€€17.9€€€81.1€€€€8.83€€€€5.59€€€€9.47€€€€35.05€€€20.85€€€36.71ÌÌòò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ $t ÐSource:à0` PàState€Statistical€Bureau,€òòStatistical€Yearbook€of€China€1991óó,Ð Ê ÐBeijing:€State€Statistical€Press,€1991,€pp.€79„80.€Ð ` (#` (# ÐññÑ€@ÑññÐ  f! ÐññÑTROèØ'3$Letter (Landscape)Xä3Ø'Ø'3$Letter (Landscape)3Ø'"Letter (Portrait)TÑññà@ä h !le€càTable€3.€Death€Rates€of€the€Chinese€Provinces:€1954„1966,€unit€.1%ˆÐ ° Ðòò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ V¦ Ѐ€€Province€€€€€€1954€€€1955€€€1956€€€1957€€€1958€€€1959€€€1960€€€1961€€€1962€€€1963€€€1964€€€1965€€€1966Ìòò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ ¢ò Ð(1)Beijing*€€€€€€€8.6€€€€9.5€€€€7.7€€€€8.2€€€€8.1€€€€9.7€€€€9.1€€€10.8€€€€8.8€€€€8.1€€€€8.3€€€€6.8€€€€7.2Ì(2)Tainjing*€€€€€€9.3€€€€9.9€€€€8.8€€€€9.4€€€€8.7€€€€9.9€€€10.3€€€€9.9€€€€7.4€€€€7.3€€€€7.8€€€€6.2€€€€6.9Ì(3)Hebei€€€€€€€€€12.1€€€11.6€€€11.3€€€11.3€€€10.9€€€12.3€€€15.8€€€13.6€€€€9.1€€€11.2€€€10.9€€€€8.7€€€€8.7€€Ì(4)Shansi€€€€€€€€14.7€€€12.9€€€11.6€€€12.7€€€11.7€€€12.8€€€14.2€€€12.2€€€11.3€€€11.4€€€14.0€€€10.4€€€10.3Ì(5)Neimonggu€€€€€20.9€€€11.4€€€€7.9€€€10.5€€€€7.9€€€11.0€€€€9.4€€€€8.8€€€€9.0€€€€8.5€€€11.8€€€€9.3€€€€8.1Ì(6)Liaoning€€€€€€€8.6€€€€9.4€€€€6.6€€€€9.4€€€€6.6€€€11.8€€€11.5€€€17.5€€€€8.5€€€€7.9€€€€9.3€€€€7.1€€€€6.2Ì(7)Jilin€€€€€€€€€10.4€€€€9.9€€€€7.5€€€€9.1€€€€9.1€€€13.4€€€10.1€€€12.0€€€10.0€€€€9.4€€€12.6€€€€9.7€€€€8.6Ì(8)Helongjiang€€€11.1€€€11.3€€€10.1€€€10.5€€€€9.2€€€12.8€€€10.6€€€11.1€€€€8.6€€€€8.6€€€11.5€€€€8.0€€€€7.4Ì(9)Shanghai*€€€€€€7.1€€€€8.1€€€€6.8€€€€6.0€€€€5.9€€€€6.9€€€€6.8€€€€7.7€€€€7.3€€€€7.0€€€€6.1€€€€5.7€€€€5.3Ì(10)Jiangsu€€€€€€12.2€€€11.8€€€13.0€€€10.3€€€€9.4€€€14.6€€€18.4€€€13.4€€€10.4€€€€9.0€€€10.1€€€€9.5€€€€8.1Ì(11)Zhejiang€€€€€13.4€€€12.6€€€€9.5€€€€9.3€€€€9.2€€€10.8€€€11.9€€€€9.8€€€€8.6€€€€7.9€€€€9.2€€€€8.1€€€€7.1Ì(12)Anhui€€€€€€€€16.6€€€11.8€€€14.3€€€€9.1€€€12.3€€€16.7€€€68.6€€€€8.1€€€€8.2€€€€7.9€€€€8.6€€€€7.2€€€€7.1Ì(13)Fujian€€€€€€€10.9€€€€8.9€€€€8.4€€€€7.9€€€€7.5€€€€7.9€€€15.3€€€11.9€€€€8.3€€€€7.4€€€€8.6€€€€7.3€€€€7.1Ì(14)Jiangxi€€€€€€14.2€€€16.2€€€12.5€€€11.5€€€11.3€€€13.0€€€16.1€€€11.5€€€11.0€€€€9.8€€€10.9€€€€9.4€€€€8.5Ì(15)Shangdon€€€€€11.7€€€13.7€€€12.1€€€12.1€€€12.8€€€18.2€€€23.6€€€18.4€€€12.4€€€11.8€€€12.0€€€10.2€€€€9.9€Ì(16)Heinan€€€€€€€13.3€€€11.8€€€14.0€€€11.8€€€12.7€€€14.1€€€39.6€€€10.2€€€€8.0€€€€9.4€€€10.6€€€€8.5€€€€8.2€Ì(17)Hubei€€€€€€€€15.9€€€11.6€€€10.8€€€€9.6€€€€9.6€€€14.5€€€21.2€€€€9.1€€€€8.8€€€€9.8€€€10.9€€€10.0€€€€9.7Ì(18)Hunan€€€€€€€€17.5€€€16.4€€€11.5€€€10.4€€€11.7€€€13.0€€€29.4€€€17.5€€€10.2€€€10.3€€€12.9€€€11.2€€€10.2Ì(19)Guangdong€€€€11.2€€€10.6€€€11.1€€€€8.4€€€€9.2€€€11.1€€€15.2€€€10.8€€€€9.4€€€€7.6€€€€8.3€€€€6.8€€€€6.4Ì(20)Guangxi€€€€€€15.2€€€14.6€€€12.5€€€12.4€€€11.7€€€17.5€€€29.5€€€19.5€€€10.3€€€10.1€€€10.6€€€€9.0€€€€7.5Ì(21)Sichuan€€€€€€€8.4€€€€9.2€€€10.4€€€12.1€€€25.2€€€47.0€€€54.0€€€29.4€€€14.6€€€12.8€€€13.9€€€11.5€€€10.8Ì(22)Guizhou€€€€€€€8.8€€€€8.1€€€€7.5€€€€8.8€€€13.7€€€16.2€€€45.4€€€17.7€€€10.4€€€€9.4€€€10.5€€€€8.4€€€€9.2Ì(23)Yunnan€€€€€€€16.7€€€13.7€€€15.2€€€16.3€€€21.6€€€18.0€€€26.3€€€11.8€€€10.9€€€14.1€€€15.2€€€13.0€€€10.8Ì(24)Shansi€€€€€€€11.0€€€10.5€€€€9.9€€€10.3€€€11.0€€€12.7€€€12.3€€€€8.8€€€€9.4€€€10.6€€€15.6€€€13.0€€€12.9Ì(25)Gansu€€€€€€€€11.6€€€11.9€€€10.8€€€11.3€€€21.1€€€17.4€€€41.3€€€11.5€€€€8.3€€€10.4€€€15.6€€€12.3€€€11.5Ì(26)Qinhai€€€€€€€13.3€€€14.1€€€€9.4€€€10.4€€€13.0€€€16.6€€€40.7€€€11.7€€€€5.4€€€€8.4€€€15.5€€€€9.1€€€€9.8Ì(27)Ningxia€€€€€€13.1€€€10.2€€€10.6€€€11.1€€€15.0€€€15.8€€€13.9€€€10.7€€€€8.5€€€10.2€€€13.4€€€€9.3€€€€9.4Ì(28)Xinjiang€€€€€16.8€€€14.4€€€14.2€€€14.0€€€13.0€€€18.8€€€15.7€€€11.7€€€€9.7€€€€9.4€€€16.3€€€11.1€€€€9.4ÌÌNation€€€€€€€€€€€13.2€€€12.3€€€11.4€€€10.8€€€12.0€€€14.6€€€25.4€€€14.2€€€10.0€€€10.0€€€11.5€€€€9.5€€€€8.8€€Ìòò€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€óóÐ ¼ " ÐNote:à0àRegional€classification:€€North=(1)„(5),€North€East=(6)„(7),€East=(9)„(15),€Center€South=(16)„(21),€SouthÐ b²# ÐWest=(21)„(23)€and€North€West=(24)„(28).Ð à.à. ÐSource:à0` PàState€Statistical€Bureau,€€òòQuanguo€Gesheng€Zizhiqu€Zhixiashi€Lishi€Tongji€Ziliao€Huibian,€1949„1989óóÐ ®þ% Ð(A€Compilation€of€Historical€Statistical€Data€of€Provinces,€Autonomous€Regions,€andÏMunicipalities),€Beijing:€China€Statistical€Press,€1990.Ð ` à.` à. 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